Taking Suzhou City and Suqian City as examples, the dynamic changes and obstacles of the carrying capacity of the transfer and receiving regions of water environment during the industrial transfer process are discussed based on the TOPSIS method of Vague sets so as to provide theoretical guidance. The study shows that with the advancement of industrial transfer, the carrying capacities of water environment in Suzhou City and Suqian City have an increasing trend and have achieved a win-win relationship. Although the overall carrying capacity of water environment in Suzhou Sity is higher than that of Suqian City, the increase rate is significantly smaller. In terms of the obstacles, the main obstacles in Suzhou City are concentrated in the resource subsystem and environmental subsystem, while those in Suqian City are concentrated in the economic subsystem and resource subsystem, which need to be optimized and improved.