3种用水量预测方法在京津冀地区的适用性比较
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TV213.4

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“十三五”国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401402);国家自然科学基金(51979263)


Applicability comparison of three water consumption prediction methods in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
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    摘要:

    本文比较了年增长率法、自回归模型法和灰色神经网络法3种常用的用水量预测方法在京津冀地区年用水量预测中的适用性,基于优选的方法对京津冀2019—2025年的年用水量进行了预测。结果表明,北京、天津和河北省1997—2018年的年用水量呈现不同的变化趋势:北京和天津的年用水量呈先减少后增加的非线性变化趋势,而河北省的年用水量呈波动递减的趋势。灰色神经网络法在京津冀3地均优于其他两个模型,被推荐为该地区年用水量预测的首选方法。基于灰色神经网络法的年用水量预测结果表明,2019—2025年北京市年用水量将趋于平稳,天津市的年用水量将缓慢增加,而河北省的年用水量则将继续下降。

    Abstract:

    This paper compared the applicability of annual growth rate method, autoregressive model method and grey neural network method in the annual water consumption prediction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and forecasted the annual water consumption of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2019 to 2025 based on the optimization method. The results showed that the annual water consumption of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province showed different trends from 1997 to 2018. The annual water consumption of Beijing and Tianjin showed a non-linear trend of decrease and then increase, while the annual water consumption of Hebei Province showed a fluctuating decreasing trend. The grey neural network method is better than the other two models in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province, so it is recommended as the first choice for the prediction of annual water consumption in this area. The prediction results of annual water consumption based on grey neural network method show that the annual water consumption of Beijing will be stable from 2019 to 2025, and the annual water consumption of Tianjin will increase slowly, while the annual water consumption of Hebei Province will continue to decline.

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白鹏,龙秋波.3种用水量预测方法在京津冀地区的适用性比较[J].水资源保护,2021,37(2):102-107.(BAI Peng, LONG Qiubo. Applicability comparison of three water consumption prediction methods in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Water Resources Protection,2021,37(2):102-107.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-03-25
  • 出版日期: 2021-03-20