城市需水量预测方法比较
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:


Comparison of urban water demand forecasting methods
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    为了提高城市需水量预测的精度,基于北京市2000—2011年的实际用水量数据,对比分析了BP神经网络预测模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型、非线性趋势模型和灰色-神经-趋势组合预测模型及其基于马尔科夫修正的各单项模型需水量预测结果。结果表明:组合预测模型优于各单项模型,基于马尔科夫修正的各模型优于各未修正预测模型。基于马尔科夫修正的灰色-神经-趋势组合预测模型预测精度最高、效果最好。

    Abstract:

    Based on the actual water demands of Beijing city from 2000 to 2011, the forecasting results of BP neural network model, grey GM(1, 1)model, nonlinear model and grey-neural-trend forecasting model and their corresponding model modified by Markov chain were contrasted and analyzed in order to improve the predicting precision of urban water demand. The results showed that the corresponding forecasting model was better than single models, and models modified by Markov chain were better than the unmodified models. In summary, grey-neural-trend forecasting model modified by Markov chain has smaller errors and higher precision accuracy.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

刘春成,曾智,庞颖,等.城市需水量预测方法比较[J].水资源保护,2015,31(6):179-183.(LIU Chuncheng, ZENG Zhi, PANG Ying, et al. Comparison of urban water demand forecasting methods[J]. Water Resources Protection,2015,31(6):179-183.(in Chinese))

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2015-11-12
  • 出版日期: 2015-11-20