浅水湖泊稳态转换模型PCLake研究进展
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P343.3

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国家自然科学基金(51469018);内蒙古自然科学基金(2014MS0403);水利部公益性行业科研专项(20150104);内蒙古科技厅项目(20140707,20130428)


Progress in research of regime shift model PCLake for shallow lakes
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    摘要:

    总结了能够全面模拟浅水湖泊生物及非生物过程的PCLake模型的发展历程、技术框架、适用性及局限性,从营养盐转换阈值、气候变化、生物操纵等3方面详述了PCLake模型的研究进展,并针对PCLake模型优势及存在问题,结合当前研究热点,展望了该模型未来发展趋势:开发全球尺度规模以及更易于使用且更灵活的模型,涵盖更多湖泊特征,形成多种组合,用于稳态转换阈值及预警识别,将敏感性分析、不确定性分析等功能嵌套于模型,提高模型的模拟精度。

    Abstract:

    The PCLake model can comprehensively simulate biotic and abiotic processes in shallow lakes. In this paper, we summarize the development history, technical framework, applicability, and limitations of the model from three aspects, which include the estimation of nutrients threshold, simulation of the effects of climate change, and biomanipulation. In addition, we present an outlook of the model’s future development in terms of the development of a more applicable and flexible model on a global scale, which can describe the characteristics of a wider range of lakes, the regime shift threshold determination and early-warning identification, the applications of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis to the model, and the improvement of the model’s accuracy, based on discussion of the model’s advantages and problems in combination with hotspot issues in current research.

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张笑欣,于瑞宏,张宇瑾,等.浅水湖泊稳态转换模型PCLake研究进展[J].水资源保护,2017,33(3):19-24.(ZHANG Xiaoxin, YU Ruihong, ZHANG Yujin, et al. Progress in research of regime shift model PCLake for shallow lakes[J]. Water Resources Protection,2017,33(3):19-24.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2016-08-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-05-11
  • 出版日期: 2017-05-20