黄河流域需水分层预测
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TV213.4;TV882.1

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“十三五”国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404404);中国博士后科学基金(2020M672245)


Forecasting of water demand hierachy in the Yellow River Basin
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    摘要:

    为了提高需水预测精度,并为流域水资源分层配置提供基础,基于马斯洛需求层次理论提出了包括刚性、刚弹性和弹性需水的黄河流域需水分层预测方法。按照不同行业的用水特点进行层次划分,将农业需水按照口粮安全、消费需求进行划分,工业需水分为一般行业需水和高耗水行业需水,将流域外生态补水作为河道外生态刚弹性需水,河道内生态需水根据泥沙冲淤比划分。黄河流域需水分层预测结果表明,2030年黄河流域河道外需水量为534.62亿m3,其中刚性、刚弹性和弹性需水占比分别为59.81%、33.62%和6.57%,比2017年增加139.01亿m3,而人均用水量减少25 m3,流域用水水平得到提高;农业节水量被用于工业等效益更高的行业,预测结果符合黄河流域1980—2017年用水规律和新时期“生态优先,水资源节约集约利用”的用水要求。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the accuracy of water demand forecast and provide the foundation for water resource hierarchical allocation of river basins, a forecasting method of water demand hierachy for the Yellow River Basin, including rigidity, rigid and elastic water demand, was proposed based on the theory of Maslows hierarchy of needs. Hierarchical partitions are conducted based on the water usage characteristics in different industries. The agricultural water demand is partitioned based on food safety and consumer demand. The industrial water demand is partitioned into regular industries water demand and high water consumption industries water demand. The ecological water supply outside the river basin is considered as the elastic water demand outside the river channels. The ecological water demand within the river channels is partitioned according to the proportion of sedimentation in the downstream. The forecasting results of water demand hierachy in the Yellow River Basin indicate that the total water demand outside the river channels in 2030 will be 53. 462 billion m3, where the proportion of rigidity, rigid and elastic water demand will be 59. 81%, 33. 62% and 6. 57%, respectively. It will be 13. 901 billion m3 more than that in the year of 2017, while the per capita water consumption is reduced by 25 m3, indicating the water saving level in the river basin is improved. Water saved in agriculture is used in industries, which can produce more value. The above results are consistent with the law of water usage in 1980—2017 in the Yellow River Basin and meet the requirement of “ecological priority, intensive use of water resources” in the new era.

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武见,明广辉,周翔南,等.黄河流域需水分层预测[J].水资源保护,2020,36(5):31-37.(WU Jian, MING Guanghui, ZHOU Xiangnan, et al. Forecasting of water demand hierachy in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Water Resources Protection,2020,36(5):31-37.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2019-12-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-09-29
  • 出版日期: 2020-09-20