Abstract:In order to improve the accuracy of water demand forecast and provide the foundation for water resource hierarchical allocation of river basins, a forecasting method of water demand hierachy for the Yellow River Basin, including rigidity, rigid and elastic water demand, was proposed based on the theory of Maslows hierarchy of needs. Hierarchical partitions are conducted based on the water usage characteristics in different industries. The agricultural water demand is partitioned based on food safety and consumer demand. The industrial water demand is partitioned into regular industries water demand and high water consumption industries water demand. The ecological water supply outside the river basin is considered as the elastic water demand outside the river channels. The ecological water demand within the river channels is partitioned according to the proportion of sedimentation in the downstream. The forecasting results of water demand hierachy in the Yellow River Basin indicate that the total water demand outside the river channels in 2030 will be 53. 462 billion m3, where the proportion of rigidity, rigid and elastic water demand will be 59. 81%, 33. 62% and 6. 57%, respectively. It will be 13. 901 billion m3 more than that in the year of 2017, while the per capita water consumption is reduced by 25 m3, indicating the water saving level in the river basin is improved. Water saved in agriculture is used in industries, which can produce more value. The above results are consistent with the law of water usage in 1980—2017 in the Yellow River Basin and meet the requirement of “ecological priority, intensive use of water resources” in the new era.