年龄结构、教育结构与产业结构优化——基于我国省级层面的空间溢出效应分析
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F121;F241;G40

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国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD156)


Age Structure, Education Structure and Industrial Structure Optimization:An Analysis of Spatial Spillover Effect Based on the Provincial Level in China
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    摘要:

    当前,我国人口老龄化严重,教育结构与产业结构匹配不尽合理,这将影响高质量发展和现代产业体系建设。从机理和实证两方面,探讨年龄结构、教育结构对产业结构优化的影响,通过研究发现:未考虑空间溢出因子时,劳动力比重提高有利于降低结构偏离度,促进产业结构高级化;老龄人口比重对产业结构高级化的影响表现出区域差异性;高等教育比重的提高对产业结构偏离度的影响为负,对产业结构高级化的影响为正;中等教育比重对产业结构偏离度和高级化的影响均表现出区域差异性。考虑空间溢出因子时,中部地区产业结构偏离度的空间溢出效应为正,表明邻近省份产业结构合理化会带动本地产业结构合理化;西部地区产业结构偏离度具有负向空间溢出效应,产业结构高级化则具有正向空间溢出效应,表明邻近省份产业结构的优化有利于促进本地产业结构优化。

    Abstract:

    At present, China’s population aging is serious and the education structure is not well matched with the industrial structure, which may affect the highquality development and the construction of modern industrial system. Then, the paper discusses the impact of age structure and education structure on the optimization of industrial structure from the perspective of mechanism and demonstration. The results indicate that when the spatial spillover factor is not considered, the increase in the proportion of labor force may help to reduce the structural deviation and promote the advanced industrial structure. Also the impact of the proportion of the elderly population on the advanced industrial structure shows regional differences. The increase in the proportion of higher education has a negative effect on the degree of deviation of the industrial structure and the impact on the higher level of the industrial structure is positive. And the impact of the proportion of secondary education on the degree of deviation and the higher level of industrial structure shows regional differences. When considering the space overflow factor, the spatial spillover effect of the degree of deviation of the industrial structure in the central region is positive, indicating that the rationalization of the industrial structure in neighboring provinces may lead to the rationalization of the local industrial structure. Also the degree of deviation from the industrial structure in the western region has a negative spatial spillover effect, and the advanced industrial structure has a positive spatial spillover effect, indicating that the optimization of the industrial structure in the neighboring provinces is conducive to the optimization of the local industrial structure.

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邹 璇 杨 雪.年龄结构、教育结构与产业结构优化——基于我国省级层面的空间溢出效应分析[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,20(5):50-56.(ZOU Xuan, et al. Age Structure, Education Structure and Industrial Structure Optimization:An Analysis of Spatial Spillover Effect Based on the Provincial Level in China[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2018,20(5):50-56.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-10-25
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