Application of improved KNN real-time correction method in small and medium-sized basins in mountainous areas
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(1.Hydrology Bureau of Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450004, China;2.Department of Water Conservancys, China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;3.Shandong Hydrology and Water Conservancys Bureau of YRCC, Jinan 250100, China;4.College of Hydrology and Water Conservancys, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China )

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P338

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    Abstract:

    To improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting in small and medium-sized basin in mountainous areas, a KNN real-time correction method based on the historical flood learning (KNN-H) was proposed and applied to two small basins in mountainous area in the Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi Province to test its performance. The proposed method was compared with the traditional KNN and AR methods. The results show that the correction accuracy of the KNN and KNN-H method is higher than that of the AR method and the traditional KNN and AR method cannot effectively reduce the peak time error of the forecasts, while the KNN-H method can reduce the peak time error. The correction accuracy of KNN is not high due to insufficient data in preheating period, while the KNN-H method effectively solves this problem by learning the historical flood forecast error. When the forecasted flood process is in the flood rising or falling stage, the KNN-H can locate the same stage of historical flood quickly and correct the current forecast value after analyzing the historical forecast error. In general, the correction accuracy of the KNN-H method is higher than that of the traditional KNN method.

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霍文博,高源,李致家,等.改进的KNN实时校正方法在山区中小流域的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2023,51(4):27-32.(HUO Wenbo, GAO Yuan, LI Zhijia, et al. Application of improved KNN real-time correction method in small and medium-sized basins in mountainous areas[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2023,51(4):27-32.(in Chinese))

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History
  • Received:June 28,2022
  • Revised:
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  • Online: July 27,2023
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