Kalman filter correction technique based on multi-source forecast residuals
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(1.Water Conservancy Bureau of Shangyu District, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, Shaoxing 312351, China;2.Hydrological Station of Shangyu District, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, Shaoxing 312375, China;3.Information Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China;4.College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;5.College of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China )

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P338

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    Abstract:

    In order to improve the flood forecasting accuracy, the real-time online correction of the flood forecasting results by mining the measured water level and discharge data is used to make full use of the information contained in the measured sequences of water level and discharge. A Kalman filter correction technique is proposed based on multi-source forecast residuals. Corresponding rising difference model and autoregressive model were used to construct the multi-source error information source, and then Kalman filtering technology was used to fuse the multi-source error sequences for the real-time correction of flood forecast results. This paper selected the Qiantang River Basin of Zhejiang Province as the study area. The validation results show that the multi-source residual fusion correction technique based on Kalman filtering technology can significantly reduce the flow simulation error and the average relative error is reduced by more than 10%.

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金桂中,陈国灿,赵兰兰,等.基于多源预报残差的卡尔曼滤波校正技术[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2024,52(4):1-4.(JIN Guizhong, CHEN Guocan, ZHAO Lanlan, et al. Kalman filter correction technique based on multi-source forecast residuals[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2024,52(4):1-4.(in Chinese))

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History
  • Received:July 28,2023
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 18,2024
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