Applicability evaluation of SDSM in the downscaling forecast of precipitation and temperature in the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin
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(1.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.Sichuan Province Zipingpu Development Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610091, China;3.School of Resources and Earth Science, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;4.Wudaogou Hydrology and Water Resources Experimental Station,Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province, Bengbu 230088, China )

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P457

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    Abstract:

    In order to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of the global climate model, we selected the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin as the study area. Based on NCEP reanalysis data, this study identified factors and corresponding grids with strong correlations to temperature and precipitation. These were used to construct a Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The accuracy of SDSM was evaluated by using daily precipitation and temperature data from 21 meteorological stations in the water conservation area of the Yellow River between 1971 and 2014. The reliability of the downscaling data was verified by comparing the daily precipitation and temperature data of the downscaling data, MRI-ESM2-0 and EC-Earth3-Veg climate modes with the measured data. The results show that the atmospheric circulation factors affecting the temperature and precipitation in the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin are mainly downward shortwave radiation flux and precipitable water. The model’s performance showed a better simulation of daily temperatures, with the correlation coefficient and Nash efficiency coefficient above 0.95. The correlation coefficient is about 0.70, Nash efficiency coefficient is about 0.50, for daily precipitation. In the entire basin, the daily temperature and precipitation based on SDSM simulations outperformed those of both EC-Earth3-Veg and MRI-ESM2-0 climate models.

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徐凡奇,赵阳,王兴平,等. SDSM在黄河流域水源涵养区降水和气温降尺度预报中的适用性[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(2):19-28.(XU Fanqi, ZHAO Yang, WANG Xingping, et al. Applicability evaluation of SDSM in the downscaling forecast of precipitation and temperature in the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(2):19-28.(in Chinese))

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  • Received:May 16,2024
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  • Online: March 26,2025
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