Research on storm surge forecasting in coastal areas of Ningbo City based on LSTM model
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Zhejiang Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center, Hangzhou 310007, China;4.Shanghai Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Technology Center, Shanghai 200050, China )

Clc Number:

P731.23

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    To enhance the timeliness and accuracy of storm surge forecasting in the coastal areas of Ningbo City, an intelligent storm surge prediction system using a long short-term memory (LSTM) model was developed. Based on historical typhoon records and virtual typhoon information, storm surges at tidal stations along the coastal areas of Ningbo City during typhoon events were calculated with the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model, creating a storm surge sample database. The LSTM model was applied to train the sample data of storm surges in the coastal areas of Ningbo City, and a robust and efficient intelligent forecasting model for storm surges in the coastal areas of Ningbo City was established through sample optimization and parameter calibration. The test results of No. 202212 Typhoon Muifa show that when the number of trained samples exceeds 400, the constructed forecasting model can accurately achieve short-term (1-12 hours) forecasting of storm surges in the coastal area of Ningbo City. However, when the forecast period exceeds 12 hours, there may be significant deviations between the forecasting results and the actual data.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

陈永平,王瑾琪,徐晓武,等.基于LSTM模型的宁波沿海风暴增水预报研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(5):162-169.(CHEN Yongping, WANG Jinqi, XU Xiaowu, et al. Research on storm surge forecasting in coastal areas of Ningbo City based on LSTM model[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(5):162-169.(in Chinese))

Copy
Related Videos

Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:January 02,2025
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 24,2025
  • Published:
Article QR Code