Analysis of rainfall nowcasting for landfalling tropical cyclones using pySTEPS
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(1.College of Mathematics and Physics, China Three Gorges University;2.Key Laboratory of Geotechnical Mechanics and Engineering of the Ministry of Water Resources, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute;3.College of Civil Engineering & Architecture, China Three Gorges University )

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P339

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    Abstract:

    The predictive capabilities of three nowcasting models (S-PROG, Extrapolation, and ANVIL) for extreme rainfall induced by tropical cyclones were evaluated using the 2017 Hurricane Harvey rainfall event as a case study. The results indicate that the ANVIL model shows the best performance in simulating the spatial distribution of rainfall, but systematically overestimates heavy rainfall intensity; the S-PROG model shows a lag in tracking rainfall intensity variations; and the Extrapolation model achieves the highest stability in short-term (0-2 h) nowcasting, accurately capturing the peak rainfall intensity and its temporal evolution. The fusion of high-resolution meteorological data and multi-source data can significantly enhance model performance, and the combination of radar extrapolation techniques and deep learning algorithms shows great potential.

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周艳平,黄一,杨建.基于pySTEPS的登陆热带气旋降雨短临预报分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(5):1-9.(Zhou Yanping, Huang Yi, Yang Jian. Analysis of rainfall nowcasting for landfalling tropical cyclones using pySTEPS[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(5):1-9.(in Chinese))

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History
  • Received:February 19,2025
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: October 09,2026
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