The extraordinary weather process inducing sudden siltation in deepwater navigation channel of Yangtze Estuary II:sensitivity analysis of typhoon parameters and its typical tracks
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    Abstract:

    To further identify the effects of four typical typhoon parameters,namely, central atmospheric pressure, distance from typhoon center to Yangtze Estuary, maximum wind radius and moving wind velocity on the sudden siltation of navigation channel in Yangzi Estuary, the orthogonal experimental design (OED) method is used to design 64 groups of typical working conditions. The wind filed is established with the empirical formula of Fujita- Takahashi circular wind filed, and SWAN model is used to simulate the wave conditions under different typhoon working conditions, by which the wave energy at NPJ station is calculated. The sensitivity sequence of the four parameters is then deduced according to the RA (Range Analysis) and VA (variance analysis) of wave energy. The study shows that in the typhoon passing through Yangtze Estuary, the distance is the most sensitive parameter and maximum wind radius is less sensitive. In this case, the two major sensitive parameters(distance and central pressure) are taken as representative parameters, while moving wind speed and maximum wind radius are generalized. A typical envelope line is proposed based on a reasonable selection of the critical wave energy which is likely to cause sudden siltation, hence providing a novel reference to predict the sudden siltation.

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贾晓,路川藤,黄华聪.影响长江口深水航道骤淤的非常态天气过程 Ⅱ:台风要素敏感性分析及典型台风路径[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(5):439-444.(JIA Xiao, LU Chuanteng, HUANG Huacong. The extraordinary weather process inducing sudden siltation in deepwater navigation channel of Yangtze Estuary II:sensitivity analysis of typhoon parameters and its typical tracks[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2017,45(5):439-444.(in Chinese))

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  • Online: September 28,2017
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