基于向量自回归模型的江苏省经济增长与环境污染关系的实证研究
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Empirical study on relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Jiangsu Province based on VAR model
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    摘要:

    基于江苏省1985—2013年经济增长与环境污染的相关数据,建立经济增长与环境污染的向量自回归(VAR)模型。在VAR模型估计的基础上,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析江苏省经济增长与环境污染之间的双向作用机制。研究发现:江苏省经济增长与环境污染之间存在双向作用机制,并且经济增长对环境的影响大于环境对经济增长的反作用;江苏省经济增长对环境污染的主要表现形式为工业固体废弃物,而对江苏省经济增长影响较大的污染物为工业固体废弃物(抑制)和工业废气(促进)。针对分析结果,提出优化产业结构配置,改进生产技术、提升“工业三废”污染治理水平、加大环保投入、完善环保法规等政策建议。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of economic growth and environmental pollution in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2013, a VAR model for the economic growth and environmental pollution is established. Based on the estimation by using the VAR model, the impulse response function and variance decomposition are employed to analyze the two-way effect mechanism between the economic growth and environmental pollution in Jiangsu Province. The results show that there exists twoway effect mechanism between the economic growth and environmental pollution in Jiangsu Province, and the effect of the economic growth on the environment is greater than the adverse effect of the environment on economic growth. The main form of environmental pollution due to the economic growth in Jiangsu Province is industrial solid waste, and the pollutants which have greater effect on the economic growth are industrial solid waste (inhibition) and industrial emissions (promotion). According to the analysis of the results, some policy suggestions are put forward: optimization of industrial structure configuration, improvement of production technology, enhancement of level of combating industrial waste pollution, increase in investment of environmental protection and improvement of environmental protection regulations.

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童纪新,朱园.基于向量自回归模型的江苏省经济增长与环境污染关系的实证研究[J].水利经济,2015,33(4):24-28.(TONG Jixin, et al. Empirical study on relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Jiangsu Province based on VAR model[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2015,33(4):24-28.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-09-14
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