我国农业机械总动力对农产品出口的动态效应——基于VAR模型的分析
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Dynamic relationship between total power of agricultural machinery and exports of agricultural products in China :Analysis based on VAR model
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    摘要:

    在1981—2013年相关经济数据的基础上,运用向量回归(VAR) 模型方法,从实证角度分析了我国农业机械总动力和农产品出口之间的动态关系。各项检验结果表明,我国农业机械总动力和农产品出口之间存在双向因果关系,适合建立向量回归模型。采用VAR模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分析方法,对农业机械总动力和农产品出口之间的动态响应关系进行计量研究,结果表明我国农业机械总动力对我国农产品出口具有长期的正影响。

    Abstract:

    Based on the relevant economic data from 1981 to 2013, the dynamic relationship between the total power of agricultural machinery and exports of agricultural products in China is studied from the perspective of empirical analysis by using the method of vector autoregression model (VAR model). The results show that there exists mutual causality between the level of agricultural technology and exports of agricultural products in China, and it is suitable to establish VAR model. The analysis of impulse response and the analysis of variance show that the level of agricultural technology has a positive long-term effect on exports of agricultural products in China. Finally, some suggestions are put forward.

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刘双芹,冯 洁.我国农业机械总动力对农产品出口的动态效应——基于VAR模型的分析[J].水利经济,2015,33(5):19-23.(LIU Shuangqin. Dynamic relationship between total power of agricultural machinery and exports of agricultural products in China :Analysis based on VAR model[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2015,33(5):19-23.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-09-29
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