For the cross-border pollution conflicts in Yellow River basin, a conflict analysis model regarding the government, the middle and lower reaches and the upstream reach as players is established by using the conflict analysis method. Combined with the prediction and rationality, the conflict equilibrium of the conflict model is analyzed, and the point of conflict equilibrium is obtained. Then various players' prior selected probabilities for each possible situation are yielded through the equilibrium analysis. A combination of the above two results in the optimal solution, that is, the government adopts compensation and punishment policies, the middle and lower reaches pays part of the cost, and the upstream reach uses full abatement of pollutants.