In order to analyze and evaluate the sustainable development level of water resources in Wuxi City, a comprehensive evaluation model for the sustainable development of water resources is established based on the model for calculating the ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water. This model includes three indices: ecological profit and loss of water, ten-thousand yuan GDP ecological footprint of water and ecological sustainability index of water. Combined with the ARIMA model, the sustainable development trend of water resources in Wuxi City is predicted. The results show that during the period from 2008 to 2015, the water ecological footprint of Wuxi City increases with fluctuations, and that of ten-thousand yuan GDP decreases year by year. Except for the water ecological deficit in 2013, the water resources are in a weak and unsustainable development state. In other years, the ecological carrying capacity of water is slightly greater than the water ecological footprint, and the ecological sustainability index of maintained in the rage of 0. 55 to 0. 66, which is in a weak and sustainable development state. If the current mode of water resources utilization is maintained, it can be predicted that the water ecological footprint of Wuxi City will increase year by year from 2016 to 2020, and the ecological sustainability index of water will be in a risk of falling to a weak and unsustainable level.
宦臣臣,甘升伟,徐慧,等.无锡市水生态足迹与水资源可持续发展评价[J].水利经济,2018,36(4):58-62HUAN Chenchen, GAN Shengwei, XU Hui, et al.(Water ecological footprint and sustainable development of water resources in Wuxi City[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2018,36(4):58-62.(in Chinese))复制