城市干旱风险管理系统协同演化研究
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100;2.江西省抚州市抚河水文水资源监测中心,江西 抚州 344106)

作者简介:

牛文娟(1972—),女,副教授,博士,主要从事水资源管理及管理系统工程研究。E-mail:longmanok@126.com

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中图分类号:

N949

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508706);广东省水利科技创新项目(2020-06)


Study on co-evolution of urban drought risk management system
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;2.Fuhe Hydrological and Water Resources Monitoring Center, Fuzhou 344106, China)

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    摘要:

    基于对城市干旱风险管理系统的分析,借鉴B-Z反应模型,建立了城市干旱风险管理系统三维Logistic协同演化模型,分“危机-应对”和“风险常态化”两种管理模式设计仿真情景,揭示在防备、响应与恢复3个子系统相互作用和政府跨组织协同度支撑下城市干旱风险管理系统的动态演进机制,并对鄂尔多斯市进行了案例模拟分析。研究结果表明:在“危机-应对”管理模式下,由于忽视城市干旱风险防备能力的建设,城市干旱风险防备能力处于较低水平,即使是增强子系统之间的协同水平,也很难提高城市干旱风险响应能力水平。无论是组织弱协同还是组织强协同条件下,干旱恢复能力都会有所增长,协同水平越强,干旱恢复水平越高。但是在干旱防备能力和响应能力均较低的情况下,干旱灾害造成的城市损失均较大,干旱恢复水平越高,意味着付出的干旱恢复成本越高,这正是“危机-应对”管理模式被动性、滞后性所造成的后果。在“风险常态化”管理模式下,在城市干旱风险防备能力水平都很强的情况下,组织强协同比组织弱协同会更加有力地推进城市干旱防备能力、响应能力和恢复能力的同时快速增长;组织强协同比组织弱协同会更加促进3个子系统之间的互动,从而促进3个子系统之间的平衡发展,对于城市应对干旱更加有效率。在城市有限资源约束下,3个子系统之间存在相互制约作用,组织强协同比组织弱协同在更加平衡子系统之间的发展的同时,会限制具有发展最优势的防备能力达到弱协同下的水平。

    Abstract:

    Urban drought risk management system is a complex dissipative structure system, which needs to be deeply studied by using systematic thinking. Based on the analysis of urban drought risk management system and using the B-Z response model for reference, a three-dimensional logistic co-evolution model of urban drought risk management system was established, and simulation scenarios were designed under two management modes of “crisis-response” and “risk normalization”, to reveal the dynamic evolution mechanism of urban drought risk management system supported by the interaction of three subsystems of preparedness, response and recovery and the synergy degree of government organizations. A case simulation analysis of the city of Ordos was conducted. The results are as follows. Under the “crisis-response” management mode, due to the neglect of the construction of urban drought risk preparedness capability, the urban drought risk preparedness capability is at a low level, so that it was difficult to improve the level of urban drought risk response capability even if the coordination level between subsystems were strengthened. This is because the response ability of urban drought risk depends on the construction of preparedness capability of drought risk. If the preparedness were insufficient, the response was insufficient, especially for long-term and large-scale drought, and even “emergency failure” was caused. Whether under the conditions of weak or strong organizational synergy, the drought recovery capability would increase. The stronger the synergy level is, the higher the drought recovery level is. However, when the drought preparedness capability and response capability are low, the urban losses caused by drought disasters are large. The higher the drought recovery level, the higher the cost of drought recovery. This is the result of the passivity and lag of the “crisis-response” management model. Under the “risk normalization” management mode, if the urban drought risk preparedness capability were very strong, the organization of strong coordination would promote the rapid growth of urban drought preparedness capability, response capability and recovery capability more effectively than the organization of weak coordination.Strong organization coordination will promote the interaction among the three subsystems more than weak organization coordination, so as to promote the balanced development among the three subsystems, which is more efficient for cities to deal with drought. Under the constraints of urban limited resources, there are mutual constraints among the three subsystems. While the organization of strong coordination would balance the growth of the three subsystems more effectively than the organization of weak coordination, it will limit the most advantageous preparedness capability to reach the level under weak coordination.

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牛文娟,刘明慧,何力.城市干旱风险管理系统协同演化研究[J].水利经济,2022,40(4):6-16NIU Wenjuan, LIU Minghui, HE Li.(Study on co-evolution of urban drought risk management system[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2022,40(4):6-16.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2021-08-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-26
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