海水淡化业发展现状及生产成本动态对比分析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京 100190;2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049;3.中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京 100190)

作者简介:

郇松桦(1999—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事宏观经济分析与预测等研究。E-mail:songhuahuan@126.com 通信作者:刘秀丽(1975—),女,教授,博士,主要从事宏观经济、资源、环境、人口系统建模与政策仿真研究。E-mail:xiuli.liu@amss.ac.cn

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中图分类号:

TV213.9

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(71874184)


Development status of seawater desalination industry and dynamically comparative analysis of its production cost
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3.Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)

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    摘要:

    为准确把握海水淡化发展及其生产成本,综述了海水淡化在全球的发展现状,对比分析了多效蒸馏法(MED)和反渗透法(RO)等技术在不同规模、年度的可比价成本组成的差异和变化趋势,通过实际案例,评价采用不同技术下淡化海水成本的主要影响因素及它们对成本的贡献率,分析典型案例在减少成本方面值得借鉴的具体措施和经验。结果表明:随生产规模扩大及技术进步,海水淡化成本逐渐降低,RO和MED在1999—2017年间成本分别降低约29.75%和36.97%;淡化成本中电力等动力费用占比近40%,固定资产投资占比约20%;在10万 m3/d级的海水淡化中,我国RO和MED的淡化成本分别比国外高出约26.85%和22.50%;我国淡化海水成本约为自来水的1.28倍,再生水的1.20倍。在未来发展中,我国可从科学投资运营、技术进步创新、完善费用结构、补齐人才短板、政府引导支持等多方面共同推进,以降低海水淡化成本。

    Abstract:

    In order to accurately grasp the development and production cost of seawater desalination, this paper first summarizes the development status of seawater desalination in the world, and then compares and analyzes the differences and trends of comparable cost components of multi effect distillation (MED) and reverse osmosis (RO) technologies in different scales and years. This paper evaluates the main influencing factors of desalination cost and their contribution to the cost under different technologies, and analyzes the specific measures and experience of typical cases in cost reduction. The results show that with the expansion of production scale and technological progress, the cost of seawater desalination is gradually reduced, and the cost of RO and med methods is reduced by 29.75% and 36.97% respectively from 1999 to 2017. In the cost of desalination, power cost accounts for nearly 40%, and fixed asset investment accounts for about 20%. In 100 000 m3/d seawater desalination, the desalination costs of RO and MED in China are 26.85% and 22.50% higher than those of foreign countries, respectively. The cost of desalination in China is about 1.28 times that of tap water and 1.20 times that of reclaimed water. In the future development, China can jointly promote the scientific investment and operation, technological progress and innovation, improve the cost structure, make up for the shortage of talents, government guidance and support, so as to reduce the cost of seawater desalination.

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郇松桦,刘秀丽.海水淡化业发展现状及生产成本动态对比分析[J].水利经济,2022,40(4):28-33, 78HUAN Songhua, LIU Xiuli.(Development status of seawater desalination industry and dynamically comparative analysis of its production cost[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2022,40(4):28-33, 78.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2021-05-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-26
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