(1.河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100;2.江苏科技大学经济管理学院,江苏 镇江 212100)
(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;2.School of Economics and Management, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212100, China)
In order to promote rational water use and alleviate water shortage in Jiangsu Province, this paper selects water consumption data of three major industries in Jiangsu province from 2000 to 2020, and uses LMDI model and VAR model to analyze the driving factors and long-term interaction relationship of the evolution of production water consumption in Jiangsu province from the perspective of dynamic and static combination. The results show that economic effect is the primary factor in promoting the increase of production water consumption in Jiangsu province, but the effect of water consumption on economic growth is relatively weak. Production intensity effect and industrial structure effect are respectively the primary and secondary inhibitory factors affecting the changes in production water consumption in Jiangsu province. In the short term, the production intensity effect can effectively restrain the growth of production water consumption, but in the long term, there is a rebound phenomenon. To effectively control the increase of production water consumption in Jiangsu province, it is necessary to weaken the strong correlation between economic growth and massive consumption of water resources, continuously promote the transformation of industrial structure in Jiangsu province to the “three-two-one” mode, cultivate the whole society's water-saving consciousness, and promote the innovation of production and water-saving technology to improve water efficiency.
吕苏榆,蒋娜,张陈俊.基于LMDI与VAR模型的江苏省生产用水量演变驱动因素分析[J].水利经济,2022,40(4):41-47, 54LYU Suyu, JIANG Na, ZHANG Chenjun.(Driving factors of the productive water consumption evolution in Jiangsu Province based on LMDI & VAR models[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2022,40(4):41-47, 54.(in Chinese))复制