基于演化博弈的跨境河流水资源合作发展策略研究
作者:
作者单位:

(河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100)

作者简介:

冯晨(1997—),女,博士研究生,主要从事水利水电与资源管理研究。E-mail:975155079@qq.com

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中图分类号:

F114.46

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA064)


Study on cooperative development strategy of cross-border river water resources based on evolutionary game
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(Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

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    摘要:

    开展跨境河流水资源合作是解决日益严峻的全球淡水资源短缺、缓解资源环境冲突的有效方式。为探析各流域国策略选择,推动跨境水资源合作发展,引入合作的超额收益、收益分配比例、机会收益、惩罚成本等影响因子,运用演化博弈模型,探讨了流域国博弈策略动态演化过程及影响因素;利用数值模拟方法研究了跨境河流流域国间策略演化规律,并选取典型水资源合作案例进行了比较分析。研究结果表明:流域国水资源合作的成本越低、合作发展产生的超额收益越高、背叛合作的机会收益与惩罚成本之间的差额越小,越有助于演化博弈的稳定策略向流域国合作发展方向演进;超额收益分配比例影响流域国间合作,影响方向取决于双方投入的成本与收益分配比例。基于跨境河流流域国间合作演化规律的探讨,可进一步为全球跨境河流水资源争端解决与合作发展提供借鉴。

    Abstract:

    Carrying out cross-border river water resources cooperation is an effective way to solve the increasingly severe global shortage of freshwater resources and alleviate the conflict between resources and the environment. In order to analyze the strategic choices of various basin countries and promote the development of cross-border water resources cooperation, this paper introduces the excess benefits of cooperation, income distribution ratio, opportunity benefits, penalty costs and other influencing factors, and uses the evolutionary game model to discuss the dynamic evolution process of the game strategy of the basin countries and influencing factors. Further use the numerical simulation method to study the evolution law of inter-state strategies in cross-border river basins. The research shows that the lower the cost of water resources cooperation among river basin countries, the higher the excess returns generated by cooperative development, and the smaller the difference between the opportunity benefit of betrayal of cooperation and the penalty cost, all of which are conducive to the stable strategy of evolutionary games to cooperate with river basin countries development direction evolution. The distribution ratio of excess revenue affects the cooperation between countries in the basin, and the direction of influence depends on the cost and revenue distribution ratio of the input of both parties. Based on the discussion on the evolution law of inter-state cooperation in cross-border river basins, it can further provide reference for global cross-border river water resource dispute settlement and cooperative development.

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冯晨,吴凤平.基于演化博弈的跨境河流水资源合作发展策略研究[J].水利经济,2023,41(1):31-39FENG Chen, WU Fengping.(Study on cooperative development strategy of cross-border river water resources based on evolutionary game[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2023,41(1):31-39.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-02-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-16
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