新发展格局下虚拟水流动对区域粮食安全的影响
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学商学院,江苏 南京211100;2.长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏 南京210098;3.江苏长江保护与高质量发展研究基地,江苏 南京211100;4.江苏省水资源服务中心,江苏 南京210029)

作者简介:

田贵良(1982—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水资源经济学研究。E-mail: tianguiliang@hhu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

F323.3

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金(19FJYB029);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(B210204012)


The impact of virtual water flow on regional food security under the new development pattern
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;2.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Jiangsu Research Base of Yangtze institute for conservation and High-quality Development, Nanjing 211100, China;4.Jiangsu Water Resources Service Center, Nanjing 210029, China)

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    摘要:

    选取2012—2020年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,基于彭曼公式估算稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆四大粮食作物的虚拟水含量和贸易流量,通过固定效应回归模型分析虚拟水流动对区域粮食安全的影响。结果表明:粮食作物的虚拟水含量在品种、空间上存在明显的差别,虚拟水从北方流向南且流动量逐年增加;虚拟水净调出量与区域粮食安全呈显著的倒“U”形关系,说明虚拟水在区域间的转移应存在一定限度;播种面积、人均水资源量、农业机械化水平和城镇化水平等因素对区域粮食安全均具有显著的影响。为此,提出了筑牢水利保障、优化种植结构、发展节水农业、提升粮食综合生产能力等保障区域粮食安全的对策建议。

    Abstract:

    Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2020, this paper used Penman-Monteith Equation to estimate the content and net export of virtual water of four major food crops (paddy, wheat, corn, and soybean). Then the paper analyzes the impact of virtual water trade on regional food security by fixed-effects regression models.The results show that the virtual water content of food crops has obvious differences in species and space. Virtual water flows from north to south and increases year by year.And there is an obvious “inverted U-shaped” relationship between virtual water net transfer and regional food security, indicating that there should be a certain limit to the transfer of virtual water between regions. Sown area, per capita water resources, agricultural mechanization level and urbanization level all have significant effects on regional food security.In the end, this paper proposes several countermeasures to ensure regional food security including strengthening water conservancy construction, optimizing planting structure, developing water-saving agriculture and improving overall grain production capability.

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田贵良,李舒文,陈松峰,等.新发展格局下虚拟水流动对区域粮食安全的影响[J].水利经济,2023,41(2):11-17.(TIAN Guiliang, LI Shuwen, CHEN Songfeng, et al. The impact of virtual water flow on regional food security under the new development pattern[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2023,41(2):11-17.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-08-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-04
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