Industry is the second largest water use sector in China, and its water-saving effect is directly related to the successful completion of China’s total water use control target. In this paper, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model (LMDI) is used to decompose the driving factors of the historical evolution of industrial water use in China from 2000 to 2018. The scenario analysis method and Monte Carlo method are combined to predict the future of industrial water use in 2019-2030. Multi-scenario simulation of the evolution trend to determine the optimal industrial water-saving pathway. The study found that the decline of industrial water intensity is the main factor that promotes the decline of industrial water use, economic growth and population expansion are the primary and secondary factors that promote the increase of industrial water use. Both accelerating and decreasing effects of industrialization level on the evolution of industrial water use have appeared. Under different scenarios, there is a clear difference in the future distribution and evolution trend of industrial water use. When industrial water intensity maintains the current scenario value, and industrialization level, GDP per capita and population maintains the target scenario value, considered to be the optimal industrial water-saving pathway. Therefore, this paper suggests to vigorously promote the transformation of industrial water saving, improve the quality of economic growth, optimize and adjust the industrial industry structure, and improve the quality of the population, in order to promote industrial water saving.