Taking China’s manufacturing and high-carbon sectors as the research industry, this paper uses the value added accounting method to measure carbon productivity embodied in export, and analyzes the low-carbon trade competitiveness of China. Based on the STIRPAT model, this paper also analyzes the factors of low-carbon trade competitiveness from the aspects of technology and structure, and predicts the low-carbon trade competitiveness in 2021—2030 under five scenarios, including low-carbon technology scenario, export structure optimization scenario and green energy structure scenario. Results show that: The increase of China’s export will intensify the pressure of domestic emission reduction, and more than 90% of the carbon embodied in export remains in China. Energy utilization efficiency is the primary factor of the low-carbon trade competitiveness of manufacturing industry, and energy consumption structure has greater impact on high-carbon sectors. According to the historical trend, the carbon productivity embodied in export of manufacturing industry in 2030 is slightly lower than that of EU in 1995, and the low-carbon trade competitiveness is low. According to the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the carbon productivity embodied in export of manufacturing industry in 2030 will reach the level of the EU in 2003, and that of the non-metallic sector will exceed the level of the EU in 2018.