上海市不同历时暴雨组合概率研究
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TV125

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国家自然科学基金面上项目(41171220);国家科技支撑计划(2012BAB03B03);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001069,201101052)


Study on probability for rainstorm combinations during different durations in Shanghai City
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    摘要:

    基于上海市徐家汇站1960—2011年的日降雨资料,分析上海市年最大1d和3d降水量年际变化和年代际变化特性;择优选择GH Copula函数构建了年最大1 d与3 d降水量的联合分布模型,并推算它们的同现重现期和组合风险概率。结果表明:年最大1 d和3 d降水随时间呈增加趋势,自20世纪70年代开始其均值随年代增加;年最大1 d和3 d设计暴雨同频遭遇风险率在75%~85%之间,且同现风险率随年最大1 d设计暴雨值增大而增加。在设计上海市防洪排涝标准时若考虑最大1 d和3 d降水量的遭遇组合,有利于提升防洪排涝能力,保障防洪安全。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation at Xujiahui station from 1960 to 2011, interannual variation and interannual changing characteristics of annual 1-day and 3-day maximum rainfall were analyzed. The Gumbel-Hougaard Copula function which was selected preferentially was used to build the joint distribution model of annual 1-day and 3-day maximum rainfall, then the co-occurrence return periods and the risk probability were calculated. The result showed that the annual 1-day and 3-day maximum rainfall had an increasing trend with time passed by. In addition, since the 70s their mean values also increased with years. The encounter risk rate of annual 1-day and 3-day design storm rainfall under the same frequency ranged from 75% to 85%, and the co-occurrence risk rate increased with the increase in annual 1-day design storm rainfall. If people consider the joint probability distribution of annual 1-day and 3-day rainfall for designing the flood control and drainage standard for Shanghai, the capability of flood control and drainage will be improved and flood control safety will be guaranteed.

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曾明,张雨凤,李琼芳,等.上海市不同历时暴雨组合概率研究[J].水资源保护,2015,31(4):82-86.(ZENG Ming, ZHANG Yufeng, LI Qiongfang, et al. Study on probability for rainstorm combinations during different durations in Shanghai City[J]. Water Resources Protection,2015,31(4):82-86.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2014-02-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-08-03
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