Abstract:We evaluated the impact of climate change on the runoff of the Xinanjiang-Fuchunjiang hydropower station basin, put forward the adaptive scheduling scheme under different climate change scenarios, and analyzed the uncertainty. The results show that, during 2016—2099, the runoff of Xinanjiang Reservoir Basin will decrease by 5. 4%—5. 8%, and the runoff of the Jinhua River Basin and Qujiang River Basin will increase by 6. 2%—7. 5% and less than 0. 8%, respectively. Under the adaptive scheduling mode, the total generating capacity of the Xinanjiang-Fuchunjiang hydropower station is expected to increase by 3. 43%—3. 85% compared with the conventional dispatching. The maximum discharge of the Xinanjiang and Fuchunjiang hydropower stations will decrease by 22. 74%—33. 29% and 16. 57%—17. 63%, respectively. The total abandoned water of the two hydropower stations will decrease by 81. 61%—99. 99% and 52. 98%—58. 64%, respectively. In addition, the scheduling mode adapts well to the radiation intensity and the uncertainty among different GCMs.