Aiming to quantitatively evaluate the groundwater exploitation intensity in Daxing District and identify the main factors, a diagnostic evaluation model based on set pair analysis was established. A dynamic evaluation was performed on the groundwater exploitation intensity in the study area from 2006 to 2016, and key factors were identified. The results show that the average groundwater exploitation intensity in the study area from 2006 to 2016 was at a medium level and appeared a trend of gradual deterioration. The subtraction set pair potential of the average connection numbers of groundwater exploitation intensity in 2010 and 2013 were in partially inverse potential and inverse potential, respectively, which should be the key control years of groundwater exploitation intensity. In 2010, three indices, including the industrial GDP, tertiary industry GDP, and irrigated land area, had subtraction set pair potentials of their connection numbers being in partially inverse potential or inverse potential, involving three, three, and five towns, respectively. In 2013, five indices, including the irrigated land area, vegetable field area, facility agriculture area, fruit field area, and number of motor-pumped wells, had subtraction set pair potentials of their connection numbers being in partially inverse potential or inverse potential, involving five, three, seven, one, and four towns, respectively.