基于Nerlove方法的塔里木河流域农业水资源配置模型
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TV213.4

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国家自然科学基金(U1803241,51779230)


Agricultural water resources allocation model in Tarim River Basin based on Nerlove approach
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    摘要:

    收集2006—2017年塔里木河流域5地州的3种主要农作物价格和种植面积数据,运用Nerlove模型预测未来小麦、玉米和棉花的种植面积,并将预测值作为输入数据引入到水资源配置中,以区域农业用水经济收益最大为目标,考虑可用水量、最大最小灌溉用水需求等约束,构建农业水资源优化配置模型。结果表明:Nerlove模型可以很好地反映大多数农作物与价格的供给响应关系;相较于现状年,5地州3种农作物规划年的预测种植面积,除了和田的玉米出现负增长,其他地州均为正增长;分配总水量为185.622万m3,且空间分配极不均匀;总收益为103.865亿元,农作物分配水量越多,其经济收益越高。

    Abstract:

    The price and planting area data of three main crops in five regions of the Tarim River Basin from 2006 to 2017 were collected, and the planting area of wheat, corn and cotton were predicted by using the Nerlove model. In order to maximize the economic benefit of regional agricultural water use, the optimal allocation model of agricultural water resources is constructed by taking the predicted value as input data and considering the constraints of available water and the maximum and minimum irrigation water demand. The results show that the Nerlove model can well reflect the supply response relationship between most crops and price; the projected acreage for the three crops in the five regions in the planning year was positive except for the negative increase in corn in Hotan compared to the current year. The total amount of water distributed was 1. 856 22 million m3, and the spatial distribution was very uneven; the total revenue was 10.386 5 billion yuan. The more water distributed by crops, the higher the economic revenue was.

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李东林,左其亭,张伟,等.基于Nerlove方法的塔里木河流域农业水资源配置模型[J].水资源保护,2021,37(2):75-80.(LI Donglin, ZUO Qiting, ZHANG Wei, et al. Agricultural water resources allocation model in Tarim River Basin based on Nerlove approach[J]. Water Resources Protection,2021,37(2):75-80.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2020-06-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-03-25
  • 出版日期: 2021-03-20