珠海市香洲城区降水变化特征及成因分析
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TV213.4;P426.6

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国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508203);国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079060)


Analysis on characteristics and causes of precipitation change in Xiangzhou urban area, Zhuhai City
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    摘要:

    基于珠海市1981—2010年逐日降水资料及2011—2018年CMADS中国大气同化驱动数据集V1.0及V1.1,利用Manner-Kendall检验法、小波分析法分析不同等级降水分布频率、变化趋势及周期特征,根据NASA GPM IMERG 0.5 h分辨率的降水数据分析香洲城区51场大暴雨及特大暴雨的时程分配特征,并依据城区土地利用类型及气溶胶粒子的变化规律进行成因分析。结果表明:1981—2018年,香洲城区总降水量呈波动减小趋势,下降率每10 a为65.70 mm,主要原因是大雨及暴雨量级雨量的减少;年降水日数及总降水量均经历了增多—减少—增多—减少—增多的4次周期振荡变化,主周期均为25 a左右;场次暴雨持续时间为4.5~23 h,且降水时长有增加趋势,暴雨峰值的出现时间的概率由大到小为夜间、上午、午间、午后;城市化进程引起地面粗糙度增大对移动的降雨系统产生了阻碍效应,对城区降雨时长的增加有一定影响,且暴雨峰值的出现时间与空气中气溶胶粒子的日变化规律相关。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation data of Zhuhai City from 1981 to 2010 and CMADS China atmospheric assimilation driving data sets V1. 0 and V1. 1 from 2011 to 2018, the distribution frequency, chang trend and periodic characteristics of different levels of precipitation were analyzed by using Manner-Kendall test and wavelet analysis, and the time history assignment characteristics of 51 rainstorms and heavy rainstorms were analyzed according to the precipitation data with 0. 5h resolution of NASA GPM IMERG. The cause of formation was analyzed according to the type of urban land use and the change law of aerosol particles. The results show that from 1981 to 2018, the total precipitation in Xiangzhou urban area of Zhuhai City show a fluctuating and decreasing trend, with a decline rate of 65. 70mm every 10 years, mainly due to the reduction of heavy rain and rainstorm. The annual precipitation days and total precipitation have experienced four periodic oscillations of increase-decrease-increase-decrease-increase, and the main periods are about 25 years. The duration of the rainstorm is 4. 5-23 h, and the precipitation duration tends to increase. The probability of the occurrence time of the rainstorm peak is: night, morning, noon and afternoon. The increase of surface roughness caused by urbanization has a blocking effect on the moving rainfall system and has a certain impact on the growth of rain time in urban areas, and the occurrence time of rainstorm peak is related to the daily variation law of aerosol particles in the air.

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曹永强,李玲慧,邵薇薇,等.珠海市香洲城区降水变化特征及成因分析[J].水资源保护,2021,37(5):9-15.(CAO Yongqiang, LI Linghui, SHAO Weiwei, et al. Analysis on characteristics and causes of precipitation change in Xiangzhou urban area, Zhuhai City[J]. Water Resources Protection,2021,37(5):9-15.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-11-12
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