堰塞湖风险评估研究综述
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学土木与交通学院,江苏 南京210098;2.南京水利科学研究院岩土工程研究所,江苏 南京210024;3.水利部水库大坝安全重点实验室,江苏 南京210029)

作者简介:

杜镇瀚(1998—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事堰塞湖风险评估方法研究。E-mail:duzh1031@163.com

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中图分类号:

P343.3;P642.2

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金长江水科学联合基金重点项目(U2040221);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y320005)


A review of risk assessment studies on dammed lake
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210024, China;3.Key Laboratory of Reservoir Dam Safety of the Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China )

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    摘要:

    从堰塞湖的灾害链演化过程出发,基于堰塞湖风险评估概念,围绕堰塞湖危险性评价、溃决过程与洪水演进模拟和溃决损失评估等3个方面,从定性和定量的角度综述了堰塞体稳定性评价方法,对溃坝参数模型、简化数学模型、精细化数学模型以及洪水演进模型进行了对比分析,从生命损失和经济损失两个角度总结了损失计算方法,最后针对堰塞湖风险评估未来在危险性评价中的不确定性问题、溃决洪水模拟的准确性问题、溃决损失评估的定量化方法、风险定量评估体系和风险动态评估体系五个方面进行展望。

    Abstract:

    Started from the evolution process of the disaster chain of dammed lake, based on the concept of dammed lake risk assessment, this paper focused on three aspects: the hazard assessment of dammed lake, the breach process and flood routing simulation, and the loss assessment after dammed lake breaching. A comprehensive review has been conducted on the qualitative and quantitative assessment methods around the world, as well as the research status. In addition, the parametric model of beaching, simplified mathematical model, refined mathematical model and flood routing model were compared. The loss calculating method was summarized from two aspects, life loss and economic loss. At last, this paper pointed out the prospect of the future risk assessment of dammed lake in five aspects: uncertainty in the risk assessment, accuracy of outburst flood simulation, quantitative method of outburst loss assessment, quantitative risk assessment system and dynamic risk assessment system.

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杜镇瀚,钟启明,董海洲,等.堰塞湖风险评估研究综述[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2022,50(4):13-25.(DU Zhenhan, ZHONG Qiming, DONG Haizhou, et al. A review of risk assessment studies on dammed lake[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2022,50(4):13-25.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2021-07-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-25
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