基于Budyko假设和微分方程的淮河上中游径流变化归因分析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京210098;2.南京水利科学研究院水文水资源研究院,江苏 南京 210098 )

作者简介:

叶婷(1998—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文物理规律模拟及水文预报研究。E-mail:571175039@qq.com

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中图分类号:

TV213.4

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52179011);国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0405601)


Attribution analysis of runoff change in the upper and middle Huaihe River based on Budyko hypothesis and differential equation
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    为探究淮河上中游流域气候变化和人类活动对不同时间尺度径流特征的影响,采用包括高流量、平均流量和低流量在内的7个流量指标表征径流变化特征,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、滑动T检验识别各流量指标的突变年份,并利用推导出的流量指标变化微分方程改进原有的基于Budyko假设的方法,从而定量识别气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率,并构建了土地利用转移矩阵分析人类活动对径流特征变化的驱动机制。结果表明:淮河上中游大部分径流特征在突变年份后呈现下降趋势,其中平均流量特征最为明显,下降幅度为225%~4425%;高流量指标、汛期径流深与气候指标的相关性最高,相关系数为0859~0987,低流量指标和非汛期径流深的相关性较低;气候变化和人类活动使得大部分径流特征呈下降趋势,其中人类活动为主导因素,其在息县、王家坝、鲁台子和蚌埠站的贡献率范围分别为8755%~9846%、8091%~8850%、8042%~9242%和8323%~9999%。

    Abstract:

    Taking the upper and middle reaches of the Huaihe River (above Bengbu Station) as the study area, seven flow indicators including the high flow, average flow and low flow are adopted to characterize the features of runoff changes and investigate the influences of climate change and human activities on the runoff characteristics at different time scales. Firstly, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the sliding Ttest are used to identify the mutation year of each flow index. Secondly, the derived differential equation of flow indicators change is used to improve the original method based on the Budyko hypothesis, so as to quantitatively identify the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the change of runoff. Finally, the driving mechanism of human activities on changes of runoff characteristics is analyzed by constructing a land-use transfer matrix. The results show that most of the flow indicators in the upper and middle reaches of the Huaihe River show a downward trend after mutation years. Among them, the average flow indicators declined most significantly, ranging from 2.25% to 44.25%. High flow indicators, floodseason runoff depth and climate indicators have the highest correlation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.859~0.987, while low flow indicators and non-flood season runoff depth have a low correlation. Climate change and human activities make most of the flow indicators show a downward trend, among which human activities are the dominant factor, and their contribution rates at Xixian, Wangjiaba, Lutaizi, and Bengbu stations are from 87.55% to 98.46%, 80.91% to 88.50%, 80.42% to 92.42% and 83.23% to 99.99%, respectively.

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叶婷,石朋,钟华,等.基于Budyko假设和微分方程的淮河上中游径流变化归因分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2022,50(5):25-32.(YE Ting, SHI Peng, ZHONG Hua, et al. Attribution analysis of runoff change in the upper and middle Huaihe River based on Budyko hypothesis and differential equation[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2022,50(5):25-32.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-09-24
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