Aiming at the durability problem of waterproof gasket for segment joints of shield tunnel, the hydrothermal accelerated aging test of rubber gasket was carried out. The tensile mechanical performance test of the aging sample, the scanning electron microscope test of the contact surface and the long-term waterproof performance test were carried out. Thereafter, the waterproof failure mechanism of the rubber gasket surface was analyzed at the microscopic scale. The ultimate waterproof pressure of the gasket was used as the durability evaluation index. Combined with the ” P-T-t “ ternary model based on the Arrhenius equation, the reduction formula of the aging waterproof performance of the gasket was deduced. The results showed that: the deterioration of the contact condition of the sealing pad surface and the hardening of the rubber material accelerate the formation of the leakage channel between the contact surface of the sealing pad; the waterproof performance of the gasket decreases with the increase of aging time, but the decline rate decreases gradually; taking the rubber gasket used in the shield tunnel of Rongjiang-Guanbu Diversion Project in Guangdong as an example, the durability prediction results using the proposed prediction formula of waterproof performance are 12.36% smaller than those only considering the mechanical properties of rubber materials, and the aging coefficient is 0.390 after 100 years of service, which provides reasonable explanation and more accurate life prediction for the frequent leakage phenomenon in the service life of original design .