基于多源预报残差的卡尔曼滤波校正技术
作者:
作者单位:

(1.浙江省绍兴市上虞区水利局,浙江 绍兴312351;2.浙江省绍兴市上虞区水文站,浙江 绍兴312375;3.水利部信息中心,北京100053;4.河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京210098;5.合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽 合肥230009)

作者简介:

金桂中(1968—),男,教授级高级工程师,硕士,主要从事水利工程建设管理和防汛研究。E-mail:2634180247@qq.com

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中图分类号:

P338

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52179011)


Kalman filter correction technique based on multi-source forecast residuals
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Water Conservancy Bureau of Shangyu District, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, Shaoxing 312351, China;2.Hydrological Station of Shangyu District, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, Shaoxing 312375, China;3.Information Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China;4.College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;5.College of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China )

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    摘要:

    为充分利用实测水位流量序列所蕴含的信息,挖掘实测水位流量数据对洪水预报结果的实时在线校正作用以提高洪水预报精度,提出了一种基于多源预报残差的卡尔曼滤波校正技术,该技术采用基于水文要素观测值的涨落差法和残差自回归模型构建多源误差信息源,利用卡尔曼滤波技术进行多源误差序列融合来对洪水预报结果进行实时校正。浙江钱塘江流域实测资料验证结果表明:基于多源预报残差的卡尔曼滤波校正技术能够显著降低预报模型的流量模拟误差,平均相对误差减小超过10%。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the flood forecasting accuracy, the real-time online correction of the flood forecasting results by mining the measured water level and discharge data is used to make full use of the information contained in the measured sequences of water level and discharge. A Kalman filter correction technique is proposed based on multi-source forecast residuals. Corresponding rising difference model and autoregressive model were used to construct the multi-source error information source, and then Kalman filtering technology was used to fuse the multi-source error sequences for the real-time correction of flood forecast results. This paper selected the Qiantang River Basin of Zhejiang Province as the study area. The validation results show that the multi-source residual fusion correction technique based on Kalman filtering technology can significantly reduce the flow simulation error and the average relative error is reduced by more than 10%.

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引用本文

金桂中,陈国灿,赵兰兰,等.基于多源预报残差的卡尔曼滤波校正技术[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2024,52(4):1-4.(JIN Guizhong, CHEN Guocan, ZHAO Lanlan, et al. Kalman filter correction technique based on multi-source forecast residuals[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2024,52(4):1-4.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-07-18
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