海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水复盘模拟
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京210098;2.河北省水文勘测研究中心,河北 石家庄050031;3.南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏 南京210044;4.水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室,江苏 南京210044 )

作者简介:

李致家(1962—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文模型与水文预报研究。E-mail:zjli@hhu.edu.cn

中图分类号:

P338

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52079035);河北省水利厅科技项目(2022-40)


Retrospective simulation on the Haihe “23·7” basin-wide extreme flood
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.Research Center of Hydrological Survey of Hebei, Shijiazhuang 050031, China;3.School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;4.Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China )

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    摘要:

    为支撑海河流域特大洪水的决策及预报预警工作,基于实测降水与流量资料,采用新安江-海河模型对海河流域2023年7月发生特大洪水的大清河2个典型小流域——紫荆关流域和漫水河流域进行了洪水模拟,并选取紫荆关流域1996—2020年5场洪水、漫水河流域1953—2016年8场洪水进行了参数率定,选取海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水进行了验证。结果表明:新安江-海河模型对“23·7”流域性特大洪水的模拟精度较高,可反映实际洪水过程,两个小流域洪峰、洪量模拟的相对误差均在20%以内,峰现时间误差均为0.h;相较于受人类活动影响小的紫荆关流域,在受人类活动影响更大的漫水河流域,新安江-海河模型的模拟效果较新安江模型的模拟效果提升更为明显。

    Abstract:

    To support the decision-making and forecasting work for the catastrophic flood in the Haihe River Basin, the Zijingguan and Manshuihe sub-basins, located in the Daqing River where a catastrophic flood occurred in July 2023, were selected for the flood simulation and prediction with the Xin’anjiang-Haihe model based on measured rainfall and discharge data. For the Zijingguan sub-basin, 5 floods from 1996 to 2020 were chosen for the parameter calibration, while for the Manshuihe sub-basin, 8 floods from 1953 to 2016 were used. The simulation was validated against the Haihe “23·7” basin-wide extreme flood event. The results showed that the relative errors of peak discharge and flood volume in both sub-basins were within 20%, with a peak timing error of 0 hours. The high accuracy of the hydrological model constructed in this study, along with the good agreement between simulation and measured results, demonstrates its ability to reflect the actual flood process. A comparison between different models revealed that the Xin’anjiang-Haihe model performed better in the Manshuihe sub-basin, which is more affected by human activities, compared to the Zijingguan sub-basin with lesser human influence.

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李致家,张心愿,白云鹏,等.海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水复盘模拟[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2024,52(5):13-19, 92.(LI Zhijia, ZHANG Xinyuan, BAI Yunpeng, et al. Retrospective simulation on the Haihe “23·7” basin-wide extreme flood[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2024,52(5):13-19, 92.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-08
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-09-25