首页 > 过刊浏览>2024年第52卷第6期 >15-22. DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2024.06.003
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基于ITA法和Mann-Kendall法的漓江流域极端降水变化解析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京210098;2.南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京210029;3.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京210098)

作者简介:

张姣(1999—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:zhangjiao_0518@163.com

中图分类号:

TV125；P426.614

基金项目:

广西科技计划项目(桂科AB22080093)；国家自然科学基金面上项目(52279019)；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(Y521021)


Analysis of extreme precipitation changes in Lijiang River Basin based on ITA and Mann-Kendall methods
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;3.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    为了分析全球气候变化背景下漓江流域极端降水的变化特征,基于流域内气象站点1963—2019年逐日降水资料,采用修改后的ETCCDI指数,通过ITA(innovative trend analysis)法和Mann-Kendall法2种非参数检验方法从站点和流域尺度研究了漓江流域极端降水的变化趋势,并分析了流域年降水量、汛期降水量和极端降水事件发生时间的变化情况。结果表明:1963—2019年漓江流域年降水量及汛期降水量均呈增长趋势；空间上,各极端降水指数呈现出由流域西北向东南递减的分布格局；时间上,各站点极端降水指数均呈上升趋势；极端降水事件在年内最早发生时间总体表现为流域北部站点时间推迟,南部站点时间提前；ITA法和Mann-Kendall法对漓江流域极端降水指数的趋势显著性检验结果存在明显差异,ITA法的敏感性更强。

    Abstract:

    To analyze the characteristics of extreme precipitation changes in Lijiang River Basin under the background of global climate change, based on the daily precipitation data of various meteorological gauges from 1963 to 2019, the modified ETCCDI indices are used to analyze the trend of extreme precipitation in Lijiang River Basin at gauge scale and the whole basin scale using two non-parametric testing methods, innovative trend analysis(ITA) method and Mann-Kendall method. In addition, the annual precipitation, flood season precipitation and the occurrence time of extreme precipitation events are also included in the analysis. Results show that the annual precipitation and flood season precipitation are increasing from 1963 to 2019. The extreme precipitation indices show spatial distribution pattern of decreasing from northwest to southeast in the basin and the indices at all gauges show an upward trend in general. Besides, the occurrence time of the earliest extreme precipitation event within a year is generally delayed in the north of the basin and advanced in the southern part. At the same time, there is an obvious difference in the trend significance test results of extreme precipitation indices between ITA and Mann-Kendall methods, and the sensitivity of ITA is stronger.

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张姣,胡庆芳,黄璟胜,等.基于ITA法和Mann-Kendall法的漓江流域极端降水变化解析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2024,52(6):15-22.(ZHANG Jiao, HU Qingfang, HUANG Jingsheng, et al. Analysis of extreme precipitation changes in Lijiang River Basin based on ITA and Mann-Kendall methods[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2024,52(6):15-22.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-08
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-22

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