雨量数据缺失条件下基于实测流量的北京市“23·7”极端暴雨降水反演
作者:
作者单位:

(北京市水科学技术研究院,北京100048 )

作者简介:

张旭旻(1998—),男,助理工程师,硕士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:2277877769@qq.com

中图分类号:

TV124;P333

基金项目:

北京市科技计划课题(Z231100003823005,Z201100008220005)


Precipitation retrieval of the “23·7” extreme rainstorm in Beijing based on measured discharge under the deficiency of rainfall data
Author:
Affiliation:

(Beijing Water Science & Technology Institute, Beijing 100048, China )

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    摘要:

    以永定河与大清河流域雨量站损毁严重、实测降水数据可靠性较差的5个典型中小流域为研究对象,基于北京市“23·7”极端暴雨实测流量数据,利用动态系统响应曲线(DSRC)反演方法对实际降水量进行反演,并采用均方根误差(RMSE)、PEARSON相关系数与纳什效率系数作为评价指标检验反演方法的有效性,同时通过统计分析实测降水(反演前)、反演降水(反演后)与实际降水(利用多源数据融合后的降水数据近似)不同历时的降水特征值对反演降水的准确性进行评价。结果表明:DSRC反演方法在5个典型流域中均能够对流域面平均降水过程进行有效反演,反演前后的降水过程与实际降水过程的平均RMSE分别为5.97、3.86 mm,平均PEARSON相关系数分别为0.67与0.82,平均纳什效率系数分别为0.27与0.67;DSRC反演方法对降水特征值的反演效果与新安江模型模拟效果以及雨量站实测雨峰的准确度密切相关;在雨量站数据传输中断后,DSRC反演方法仍能够对实际降水进行有效反演,反演的降水过程表现出明显的连续性特征。

    Abstract:

    This paper utilized the method of dynamic system response curve (DSRC) to retrieve the real precipitation of the “23·7” extreme rainstorm in Beijing based on the observed discharge data in 5 typical watersheds with severely damaged rain stations and poor reliability of measured rainfall of Yongding River and Daqing River Basins. Several indices including the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), PEARSON correlation coefficient ( R ), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were employed to validate the effectiveness of the DSRC method. The characteristics within different duration of the observed rainfall (before inversion) and the retrieved rainfall (after inversion) were both summarized and compared to the actual rainfall (approximated by the multi-source precipitation fusion), to demonstrate the accuracy of the inversion series. Results shows that the DSRC method can effectively retrieve the average areal precipitation process, while the average RMSE between the observed and actual series and between the retrieved and actual rainfall are 5.97, 3.86 mm, respectively. The average R are 0.67 and 0.82, and the average NSE are 0.27 and 0.67. The retrieval performance of the DSRC method is closely related to the XAJ model simulation performance and whether the rain-gauge station can accurately capture the peak rainfall. Even in the case of rain-gauge station damages and the data transmission interruption, the DSRC method is still able to retrieve the actual precipitation which exhibits significant continuity characteristics.

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张旭旻,陈颖冰,李永坤,等.雨量数据缺失条件下基于实测流量的北京市“23·7”极端暴雨降水反演[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2024,52(6):38-44.(ZHANG Xumin, CHEN Yingbing, LI Yongkun, et al. Precipitation retrieval of the “23·7” extreme rainstorm in Beijing based on measured discharge under the deficiency of rainfall data[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2024,52(6):38-44.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-22