黄河流域未来气象水文干旱传播的气候变化响应
作者:
作者单位:

(河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京210098 )

作者简介:

谢灵枫(2000—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事干旱传播研究。E-mail:221301020003@hhu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

P339

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(U2243203,52079036)


Response of future meteorological and hydrological drought propagation to climate change in the Yellow River Basin
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(College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China )

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    摘要:

    为研究未来时期黄河流域气象干旱向水文干旱传播中干旱特征的变化,基于可变下渗容量模型模拟了黄河流域历史时期(1961—2014年)与未来时期(2015—2100年)的水文过程,给出了基于干旱事件匹配的干旱强度传播指数与干旱历时传播指数,预估了未来时期黄河流域干旱特征传播较历史时期的变化。结果表明:气候变化使黄河流域干旱传播时间多有缩短;未来情景下气象干旱传播率与水文干旱敏感性较历史时期更高,气象干旱更容易向水文干旱传播;未来时期干旱强度传播的强度基本保持不变,干旱历时传播的强度将大幅下降。

    Abstract:

    To study the changes of drought characteristics in the propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Yellow River Basin in the future, it is urgent to study the characteristics and transmission process of drought, so as to provide guidance for drought early warning. In this paper, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was used to simulate the hydrological process of the Yellow River Basin in the historical period (1961-2014) and the future period (2015-2100), and the drought intensity propagation index and the drought duration propagation index were constructed based on the matching of drought events, and the changes of the drought characteristics propagation in the Yellow River Basin in the future compared with the historical period were analyzed. The conclusion shows that climate change has shortened the drought propagation time in the Yellow River Basin and in the future scenario, meteorological drought translation rate and hydrological drought sensitivity are higher than those in the historical period; thus, meteorological drought is more likely to spread to hydrological drought. The intensity of drought intensity propagation in the future period will remain basically unchanged, while the intensity of drought duration propagation will decrease significantly in the future.

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引用本文

谢灵枫,杨肖丽,吴凡,等.黄河流域未来气象水文干旱传播的气候变化响应[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(1):10-17, 24.(XIE Lingfeng, YANG Xiaoli, WU Fan, et al. Response of future meteorological and hydrological drought propagation to climate change in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(1):10-17, 24.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-22
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