气候变化及人类活动影响下永安溪河流水文健康响应
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(1.厦门理工学院环境科学与工程学院,福建 厦门361024;2.厦门市水资源利用与保护重点实验室,福建 厦门361024 )

作者简介:

李铠峰(1995—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:2222031423@stu.xmut.edu.cn

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基金项目:

福建省自然科学基金项目(2022J011232);厦门理工学院研究生科技创新计划项目(YKJCX2022171)


Hydrological health response of climate change and human activities impact of the Yong’an River
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(1.School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China;2.The Key Laboratory of Water Resources Utilization and Protection of Xiamen, Xiamen 361024, China )

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    摘要:

    为充分认识气候变化及人类活动影响下的河流水文健康响应,采用降水-径流双累积曲线法和Pettitt法分析永安溪径流变化,并基于气象和径流数据构建流域长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络模型还原天然流量序列,通过对多种方法计算的最适宜生态流量进行对比和筛选,揭示了永安溪河流水文健康度( R HD)变化,定量评估了各驱动因子的贡献度。结果表明:永安溪径流的突变时间为2003年,与下岸水库运行时间一致;与5种概率密度函数法相比,Q50法计算的永安溪流域最适宜生态流量是可靠且合理的;与人类活动的贡献(34.74%)相比,气候变化(65.26%)是永安溪河流水文健康下降的主要因素;对比还原流量的 R HD,下岸水库运行后实测流量的 R HD在3月、4月、10月明显提升。

    Abstract:

    To comprehensively understand the response of climate change and human activities impact of the river hydrological health, the precipitation-runoff double accumulation curve method and Pettitt method were used to analyze the abrupt change of runoff of Yong’an River, and the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model was developed to reconstruct the natural flow series based on meteorological and runoff datasets. Various optimal ecological flow calculation methods were compared and filtered to reveal the change trend in the river hydrological health degree ( R HD), and contribution of each driving factor was quantitatively evaluated. The results show the mutation in the runoff series of Yong’an River occurred in 2003, which is consistent with the operating time of the Xia’an reservoir. Compared with the five probability density function methods, the Q50 flow is recognized as the optimal ecological flow calculation metho for the Yong’an River Basin. Compared to the contribution of human activity (approximately by 34.74%), climate change is the main factor (approximately by 65.26%) contributing to the decline in the hydrological health of Yong’an River. The R HD of the measured runoff after the operation of the Xia’an reservoir showed a significant increase compared with the R HD of the restored natural runoff, especially in March, April, and October.

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李铠峰,赵超,李文彧,等.气候变化及人类活动影响下永安溪河流水文健康响应[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(1):25-30, 61.(LI Kaifeng, ZHAO Chao, LI Wenyu, et al. Hydrological health response of climate change and human activities impact of the Yong’an River[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(1):25-30, 61.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-22
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