SDSM在黄河流域水源涵养区降水和气温降尺度预报中的适用性
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京210098;2.四川省紫坪铺开发有限责任公司,四川 成都 610091;3.中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏 徐州221116;4.安徽省水利部淮委水利科学研究院五道沟水文实验站,安徽 蚌埠 230088 )

作者简介:

徐凡奇(2001—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水文物理规律模拟及水文预报研究。E-mail:xufanqi0409@qq.com

中图分类号:

P457

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划资目(2021YFC3201104);“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2022490511);江苏省大学生创新创业项目(202310294012Z, 202310294176Y)


Applicability evaluation of SDSM in the downscaling forecast of precipitation and temperature in the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.Sichuan Province Zipingpu Development Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610091, China;3.School of Resources and Earth Science, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;4.Wudaogou Hydrology and Water Resources Experimental Station,Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province, Bengbu 230088, China )

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    摘要:

    为提高全球气候模式时空分辨率,以黄河流域水源涵养区为研究对象,基于NCEP再分析数据,优选出与气温、降水相关性较强的因子和对应网格,以此构建SDSM,并采用1971—2014年黄河水源涵养区21个气象站的逐日降水量和气温数据对SDSM的精度进行评估,通过将降尺度数据、MRI-ESM2-0、EC-Earth3-Veg气候模式自身的日降水和气温数据与实测数据进行对比分析验证降尺度数据的可靠性。结果表明:影响黄河流域水源涵养区气温和降水的大气环流因子主要为向下短波辐射通量和可降水量;SDSM对日气温的模拟效果优于降水,相关系数和纳什效率系数皆在0.95以上;日降水相关系数在0.70左右,纳什效率系数在0.50左右;在全流域上,基于SDSM模拟的日气温和降水均优于EC-Earth3-Veg和MRI-ESM2-0气候模式。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of the global climate model, we selected the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin as the study area. Based on NCEP reanalysis data, this study identified factors and corresponding grids with strong correlations to temperature and precipitation. These were used to construct a Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The accuracy of SDSM was evaluated by using daily precipitation and temperature data from 21 meteorological stations in the water conservation area of the Yellow River between 1971 and 2014. The reliability of the downscaling data was verified by comparing the daily precipitation and temperature data of the downscaling data, MRI-ESM2-0 and EC-Earth3-Veg climate modes with the measured data. The results show that the atmospheric circulation factors affecting the temperature and precipitation in the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin are mainly downward shortwave radiation flux and precipitable water. The model’s performance showed a better simulation of daily temperatures, with the correlation coefficient and Nash efficiency coefficient above 0.95. The correlation coefficient is about 0.70, Nash efficiency coefficient is about 0.50, for daily precipitation. In the entire basin, the daily temperature and precipitation based on SDSM simulations outperformed those of both EC-Earth3-Veg and MRI-ESM2-0 climate models.

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徐凡奇,赵阳,王兴平,等. SDSM在黄河流域水源涵养区降水和气温降尺度预报中的适用性[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(2):19-28.(XU Fanqi, ZHAO Yang, WANG Xingping, et al. Applicability evaluation of SDSM in the downscaling forecast of precipitation and temperature in the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(2):19-28.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-03-26