不同误差校正方法在衢江流域洪水预报中的应用对比
作者:
作者单位:

(河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京210098 )

作者简介:

杨雨蒙(1999—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:755360706@qq.com

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中图分类号:

P338

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52179011)


Application comparison of different error correction methods in flood forecasting in Qujiang River watershed
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(College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China )

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    摘要:

    采用新安江模型模拟洪水过程,基于纳什效率系数、洪峰相对误差、峰现时间误差等指标评估了实时校正量法、反馈模拟实时校正法、误差自回归模型、随机森林、 k 最邻近算法和人工神经网络共6种实时校正方法对钱塘江衢江流域洪水预报结果的校正效果。结果表明:6种校正方法均能减少洪峰相对误差,其中随机森林最优,实时校正量法和反馈模拟法次之;对于纳什效率系数,人工神经网络和误差自回归表现较好,在起始预报时刻距离洪峰较远时,人工神经网络的效果更好;对于峰现时间,随机森林的校正效果最好,其次是人工神经网络;各方法综合比较而言,人工神经网络的表现最好,可以在一定程度上提高洪水预报的精度。

    Abstract:

    Xin’anjiang model was used to simulate the flood process of Qujiang River watershed of Qiantang River. The effectiveness of six real-time correction methods for correcting flood forecasting results in the study area was evaluated based on indexes such as Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE), relative error of flood peak (RE), and peak time error (Δ T ). These methods included real-time correction method, real-time correction method by feedback simulation, autoregressive (AR) method, random forest (RF), k -nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN), and artificial neural network (ANN). The results show that all six correction methods can reduce RE, with RF being the best, followed by the real-time correction method and the method by feedback simulation. In terms of NSE, ANN and AR methods perform well, especially when the starting forecast time is far from the flood peak; ANN shows a better performance. In terms of peak time, RF has the best correction performance, followed by ANN. Overall, ANN shows the best performance, which can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting to a certain extent.

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引用本文

杨雨蒙,石朋,瞿思敏,等.不同误差校正方法在衢江流域洪水预报中的应用对比[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(3):8-14.(YANG Yumeng, SHI Peng, QU Simin, et al. Application comparison of different error correction methods in flood forecasting in Qujiang River watershed[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(3):8-14.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-26
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