基于Budyko理论的高寒山区流域径流演变归因分析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210098;2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京210098;3.西藏自治区水文水资源勘测局山南水文水资源分局,西藏 山南856100;4.聊城大学地理与环境学院,山东 聊城252000;5.兰州交通大学土木工程学院,甘肃 兰州730070 )

作者简介:

郭珈源(2000—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水文物理规律模拟及水文预报研究。E-mail:221301010010@hhu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

P333.1

基金项目:

第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZ-KK0207);国家自然科学基金项目(92047301)


Attribution analysis of runoff evolution in cold alpine catchment based on Budyko theory
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,China;3.Shannan Branch, Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Xizang Autonomous Region, Shannan 856100, China;4.School of Geography and Environment, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China;5.School of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China )

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    摘要:

    为提高对高寒山区流域气候变化下径流演变机理的认识,以羊八井流域为研究对象,系统辨析了该流域1982—2013年的水文气象要素演变特征,将冰川物质平衡和地下水蓄量变化项引入Budyko归因分析方程,评估了各要素变化对流域径流演变的贡献。结果表明:羊八井流域1982—2013年间降水量、平均气温、潜在蒸散发量、径流量和地下水蓄量均呈上升趋势,上升速率分别为3.0 mm/a、0.02 ℃/a( p <0.05)、0.53 mm/a、1.99 mm/a( p <0.05)和2.18 mm/a( p <0.05);随着气候的暖湿化,流域径流演变对水文气候要素变化的敏感性增强,降水量、潜在蒸散发、非冰川区下垫面、冰川物质平衡及地下水蓄量变化对径流变化的贡献率分别为189%、-2.99%、-78.3%、20.9%和-28.7%;植被生长状况改善与冻土退化是导致流域下垫面变化的重要因素,二者对径流变化的贡献率分别为-27.9%和-50.4%。

    Abstract:

    To further understand the mechanism of runoff evolution in cold alpine catchment under climate changes, the evolution characteristics of hydro-meteorological elements in the Yangbajain Catchment from 1982 to 2013 were systematically analyzed. By incorporating glacier mass balance and groundwater storage changes into the Budyko attribution analysis equation, the contributions made by changes in each factor to runoff evolution in the catchment were assessed.The results show that precipitation, average temperature, potential evapotranspiration, runoff amount,and groundwater storage in the Yangbajain Catchment show an upward trend from 1982 to 2013, with increasing rates of 3.0 mm/a, 0.02℃/a ( p <0.05), 0.53 mm/a, 1.99 mm/a ( p <0.05), and 2.18 mm/a ( p <0.05), respectively. As the climate gets warm and humid, the sensitivity of runoff evolution in the catchment to changes in the hydro-meteorological elements has increased. The contribution rates of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, underlying surface of non-glacial areas, glacier mass balance, and groundwater storage changes to runoff changes are 189%, -2.99%, -78.3%, 20.9%, and -28.7%, respectively. Improvement in vegetation growth and degradation of frozen soil are important factors causing changes in the underlying surface in the catchment, with contribution rates to runoff changes of -27.9% and -50.4%, respectively.

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郭珈源,孙旭杨,刘金涛,等.基于Budyko理论的高寒山区流域径流演变归因分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(3):22-29.(GUO Jiayuan, SUN Xuyang, LIU Jintao, et al. Attribution analysis of runoff evolution in cold alpine catchment based on Budyko theory[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(3):22-29.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-26
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