广东省水资源能源粮食的省际流动与风险传递
作者:
作者单位:

(1.广东省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,广东 广州510640;2.农业农村部华南都市农业重点实验室,广东 广州510640;3.北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 )

作者简介:

洪思扬(1990—),女,副研究员,博士,主要从事资源经济研究。E-mail:hongsy@mail.bnu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

F121.3

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(51879010); 广东省自然科学基金项目(2024A1515012313); 广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD25CYJ16,GD23YYJ15,GD23YYJ14); 广东省农业科学院“中青年学科带头人”培养项目(R2023PY-JX022)


Inter-provincial water, energy, and food flow and risk transfer in Guangdong Province
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information, Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Guangzhou 510640, China;2.Key Laboratory of Urban Agriculture in South China, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangzhou 510640, China;3.College of Water Science,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China )

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    摘要:

    基于多区域投入产出表,核算了广东省与中国各省份间的水资源、能源、粮食(water, energy, food ,WEF)资源流动情况,并创新性地量化了各省份与广东省间通过WEF资源流动而传递的风险值,探索了风险传递价值。结果表明:省际WEF资源贸易中,广东省总计净流入117.06亿m3体现水,2.80×109GJ体现能源,1 622.93万t体现粮食,大多数省份均对广东省净流入WEF资源,且以广西、河南、安徽、湖南四省最多;广东省WEF资源的影响力系数及感应度系数均较低,在全国WEF资源贸易中对其他省份的带动作用和影响力不强,且对其他省份资源消耗变化的感应能力较弱;WEF资源流动传递的风险值对于输入地区和输出地区是非对称性的,对于大多数省份而言,WEF资源流入广东省的风险传递价值较高,在缓解广东省WEF资源风险的基础上,并未显著提升自身风险,且以海南、天津、上海、河南、甘肃较为显著;云南、北京、山西、浙江的风险传递价值则相对较低,广东省对其资源输入而产生的WEF资源风险相对较大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the multi-regional input and output table, the water, energy, and food (WEF) resource flow between Guangdong Province and other provinces/autonomous regions/cities in China was calculated, and the amount of risk transferred through WEF resource flow between these provinces/autonomous regions/cities was innovatively quantified. Moreover, the value of risk transfer was explored.The results show that:in the inter-provincial WEF resource trade, the net inflow of embodied water to Guangdong Province is 11.706 billion cubic meters; the net inflow of embodied energy is 2.80×109GJ, and the net inflow of embodied food is 16.229 3 million tons. Most regions have a net inflow of WEF resources to Guangdong Province, with Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Henan, Anhui, and Hunan provinces exhibiting the highest inflow values.The influence coefficient and induction coefficient of WEF resources in Guangdong Province are low, and the driving and influence effect on other provinces/autonomous regions/cities in the national WEF resource trade is not strong. In addition, the induction ability of resource consumption changes in other provinces/autonomous regions/cities is weak. The risk transfer value of WEF resource flows exhibits an asymmetrical pattern between input and output regions. For most regions,the risk transfer value of WEF resource flow into Guangdong Province is high. On the basis of alleviating the risk of WEF resources in Guangdong Province, the risk in these regions has not significantly improved, especially in Hainan Province, Tianjin City, Shanghai City, Henan Province, and Gansu Province.The risk transfer value of Yunnan Province, Beijing City, Shanxi Province, and Zhejiang Province is relatively low,and the WEF resource risk caused by the resource input of Guangdong Province is relatively large.

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洪思扬,方伟,王佳友,等.广东省水资源能源粮食的省际流动与风险传递[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(4):18-27.(HONG Siyang, FANG Wei, WANG Jiayou, et al. Inter-provincial water, energy, and food flow and risk transfer in Guangdong Province[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(4):18-27.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-28
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