物理引导数据驱动方法研究综述及其在水文模型构建中的应用与展望
作者:
作者单位:

(1.水利部水利大数据重点实验室,河海大学,江苏 南京 211100;2.河海大学计算机与软件学院,江苏 南京 211100;3.江苏信息职业技术学院物联网工程学院(信息学院),江苏 无锡214153 )

作者简介:

冯钧(1969—),女,教授,博士,主要从事数据管理、领域知识工程、水利大数据应用研究。 E-mail:fengjun@hhu.edu.cn

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P333

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209203);国家自然科学基金项目(62306007);江苏省水利科技项目(2022002, 2023044);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022132)


Research review of physics-guided data-driven methods and their application and prospects in hydrological model development
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;2.College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;3.The Internet of Things Engineering College (Information Security College), Jiangsu Vocational College of Information Technology, Wuxi 214153, China )

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    为探索物理机理模型与数据驱动模型的融合方法,分析了现有物理引导融合驱动方法的实现方式,对基于理论引导数据科学(TGDS)的物理引导融合驱动方法在不同领域的研究现状进行了分类与总结,并提出了物理引导反馈融合驱动方法和物理引导编码融合驱动方法这种新的分类方式,结合水文建模领域的特点,详细阐述了物理引导融合驱动方法在水文模型构建中的挑战,并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。认为基于TGDS的物理引导融合驱动方法,能够增强预测结果的物理一致性,减少预测误差的累积,提高模型的可解释性,同时能为洪水预报水文模型的改进提供可行路径,既能减少机理模型因概化过程带来的预测精度不高的问题,又能有效改善由于数据驱动模型对样本的过度依赖导致的可解释性低的问题;但该方法在应用中面临着计算能力有限、提取多源数据特征不够准确、参数调整不够灵活的问题,因此在未来研究中可以结合可微分建模或者采用大模型结合领域知识图谱的方法,进一步探索洪水时序预测建模研究,以更好地应对复杂环境下的洪水预报需求。

    Abstract:

    To explore the fusion methods of physical mechanism models and data-driven models, the implementation pathway of existing physics-guided fusion driving methods was analyzed. The research status of physics-guided fusion driving methods based on theory-guided data science (TGDS) in different fields was classified and summarized, and new classification methods, such as the physics-guided feedback fusion driving method and the physics-guided coding fusion driving method, were proposed. According to the characteristics of the hydrological modeling field, the challenges of the physics-guided fusion driving method in hydrological model construction were elaborated in detail. And the future research directions have been prospectively discussed. It was believed that the physics-guided fusion driving method based on TGDS could enhance the physical consistency of prediction results, reduce the accumulation of prediction errors, and improve the interpretability of the model, providing a feasible path for improving flood forecasting-oriented hydrological models. It could not only improve the low prediction accuracy caused by the generalization process of the mechanism model but also effectively improve the interpretability problem caused by the excessive dependence of data-driven models on samples. However, this method faces the problems of limited computing power, inaccurate extraction of multi-source data features, and inflexible parameter adjustment in its application. Therefore, in future research, differentiable modelling (DM) can be combined, or large models combined with domain knowledge graphs can be used to further explore the modeling of flood time series prediction, so as to better meet the needs of flood forecasting in complex environments.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

冯钧,邵萍萍,张继茹,等.物理引导数据驱动方法研究综述及其在水文模型构建中的应用与展望[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(5):1-9.(FENG Jun, SHAO Pingping, ZHANG Jiru, et al. Research review of physics-guided data-driven methods and their application and prospects in hydrological model development[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(5):1-9.(in Chinese))

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-07-30
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-24
  • 出版日期: