基于分布式模型的永定河流域“23·7”特大洪水模拟
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(1.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京210098;2.北京市水文总站,北京100089)

作者简介:

李致家(1962—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文预报研究。E-mail:zjli@hhu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

TV122

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006500);国家自然科学基金项目(52079035)


Simulation of “23·7” catastrophic flood in the Yongding River Basin based on distributed models
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(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.Beijing Hydrological Station, Beijing 100089,China )

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    摘要:

    为准确呈现“23·7”特大洪水的过程特征,为永定河流域特大洪水的预防与预警工作提供理论支持,采用网格新安江模型和网格蓄超模型对永定河流域5个关键控制断面(斋堂水库、青白口、雁翅、三家店、卢沟桥)进行了模拟分析,采用2000—2022年的典型洪水事件率定模型参数,并采用“23·7”特大洪水事件进行验证。结果表明:网格新安江模型和网格蓄超模型均能够较为准确地模拟“23·7”特大洪水的全过程,且在青白口断面,2个模型的确定性系数均达到甲级精度;在雁翅、三家店和卢沟桥控制断面,模型精度均达到乙级,模拟效果优良;网格新安江模型与网格蓄超模型在5个控制断面的洪量、洪峰及峰现时间等指标表现良好,可较好地模拟半干旱半湿润地区的特大洪水。

    Abstract:

    In order to accurately reconstruct the process characteristics of “23·7” catastrophic flood and provide theoretical support for the prevention and early warning of catastrophic floods in the Yongding River Basin, the grid-based Xin’anjiang (Grid-XAJ) model and Grid-XAJ based on saturation-infiltration double excess (Grid-XAJ-SIDE) model were used to simulate and analyze five key control sections in the Yongding River Basin: Zhaitang Reservoir, Qingbaikou, Yanchi, Sanjiadian, and Lugou Bridge. Typical flood events from 2000 to 2022 were selected for parameter calibration, and the “23·7” catastrophic flood event was used for validation. The results show that both the Grid-XAJ and Grid-XAJ-SIDE models can accurately simulate the entire process of the “23·7” catastrophic flood. In the Qingbaikou section, the determination coefficients of both models achieve Class A accuracy; at the Yanchi, Sanjiadian, and Lugou Bridge control sections, the model accuracy reaches Class B, indicating excellent simulation performance. The study demonstrates that the Grid-XAJ and Grid-XAJ-SIDE models perform well in simulating flood volume, peak flow, and peak time at the five control sections, making them effective for simulating catastrophic floods in semi-arid and semi-humid regions.

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李致家,李安琪,姚成,等.基于分布式模型的永定河流域“23·7”特大洪水模拟[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(5):10-17, 57.(LI Zhijia, LI Anqi, YAO Cheng, et al. Simulation of “23·7” catastrophic flood in the Yongding River Basin based on distributed models[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(5):10-17, 57.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-24
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