基于LSTM模型的宁波沿海风暴增水预报研究
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京210098;2.河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏 南京210098;3.浙江省海洋监测预报中心,浙江 杭州310007;4.上海市水旱灾害防御技术中心,上海200050)

作者简介:

陈永平(1976—),男,教授,博士,主要从事河口海岸水环境研究。E-mail:ypchen@hhu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

P731.23

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008100); 浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF22D060010);宁波市水利科技计划项目(NSKA202538)


Research on storm surge forecasting in coastal areas of Ningbo City based on LSTM model
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Zhejiang Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center, Hangzhou 310007, China;4.Shanghai Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Technology Center, Shanghai 200050, China )

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    摘要:

    为提高宁波沿海风暴潮位预报的时效性与精度,基于LSTM模型开展了风暴潮引起的增水智能预报研究。基于历史台风和虚拟台风信息,利用ADCIRC水动力模型计算了台风期间宁波沿海潮位站的风暴增水,构建了风暴增水样本数据库;应用LSTM模型对宁波沿海风暴增水样本数据进行训练,通过样本优化与参数调优,建立了稳健高效的宁波沿海风暴增水智能预报模型。202212台风“梅花”检验结果表明,当训练样本超过400场时,所构建的预报模型可以较好地实现宁波沿海风暴增水1~12.h的短期预报,当预见期超过12.h后,预报结果与实测数据将可能出现较大偏差。

    Abstract:

    To enhance the timeliness and accuracy of storm surge forecasting in the coastal areas of Ningbo City, an intelligent storm surge prediction system using a long short-term memory (LSTM) model was developed. Based on historical typhoon records and virtual typhoon information, storm surges at tidal stations along the coastal areas of Ningbo City during typhoon events were calculated with the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model, creating a storm surge sample database. The LSTM model was applied to train the sample data of storm surges in the coastal areas of Ningbo City, and a robust and efficient intelligent forecasting model for storm surges in the coastal areas of Ningbo City was established through sample optimization and parameter calibration. The test results of No. 202212 Typhoon Muifa show that when the number of trained samples exceeds 400, the constructed forecasting model can accurately achieve short-term (1-12 hours) forecasting of storm surges in the coastal area of Ningbo City. However, when the forecast period exceeds 12 hours, there may be significant deviations between the forecasting results and the actual data.

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陈永平,王瑾琪,徐晓武,等.基于LSTM模型的宁波沿海风暴增水预报研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(5):162-169.(CHEN Yongping, WANG Jinqi, XU Xiaowu, et al. Research on storm surge forecasting in coastal areas of Ningbo City based on LSTM model[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(5):162-169.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-24
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