基于秩评分方法的CMIP6全球气候模式对淮河流域降水和气温模拟能力评估
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;2.南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210029;3.江苏省水文水资源勘测局南京分局,江苏 南京210008;4.安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院五道沟水文水资源实验站,安徽 蚌埠 233000 )

作者简介:

鞠琴(1980—),女,副教授,博士,主要从事气候变化下水文响应研究。E-mail:juqin@hhu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

P46

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52179013,52325902);江苏省基础研究计划自然科学基金项目(BK20240283);安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院青年科技创新计划项目(KY202307)


Evaluation for CMIP6 global climate models in simulating precipitation and temperature over the Huaihe River Basin based on rank score method
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;3.Nanjing Branch of Jiangsu Province Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey, Nanjing 210008, China;4.Wudaogou Hydrology and Water Resources Experimental Station, Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province, Bengbu 233000, China )

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    摘要:

    基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的22个全球气候模式对淮河流域1985—2014年降水和气温的模拟数据,选取7个指标采用秩评分方法对各气候模式的模拟能力进行综合评估,并讨论秩评分对各指标的敏感性,同时进一步分析了优选气候模式的空间模拟能力。结果表明:各气候模式对淮河流域月平均降水和气温的模拟能力差异较大,整体上各气候模式对气温的模拟效果更优,对月平均降水普遍存在高估;综合秩评分前五的气候模式依次为EC-Earth3(7.83)、EC-Earth3-Veg(7.66)、ACCESS-CM2(7.62)、TaiESM1(7.27)、FGOALS-f3-L(7.20);降水的秩评分结果对标准差、Mann-Kendall趋势分析的统计量 z 和斜率 β 的敏感性较高,气温对 z 和 β 的敏感性较高,不同秩评分指标组合对秩评分有一定的影响;综合模拟能力相对最优的EC-Earth3模式能很好地再现降水空间分布特征,而对气温空间分布特征模拟略差。

    Abstract:

    By using simulation data of precipitation and temperature in the Huaihe River Basin from 1985 to 2014 from 22 global climate models (GCMs) of the coupled model intercomparison project in phase 6 (CMIP6), the simulation performance of GCMs was comprehensively assessed by means of a rank score method with seven indexes selected, and the sensitivity of the scores to each index was analyzed. The spatial simulation performance of the selected optimal GCMs was evaluated. The results reveal significant differences in the simulation performance of monthly average precipitation and temperature in the Huaihe River Basin among the models. Overall, the GCMs perform better in simulating temperatures, but there is a general overestimation of monthly average precipitation. The top five models with the best comprehensive rank score are EC-Earth3 (7.83), EC-Earth3-Veg (7.66), ACCESS-CM2 (7.62), TaiESM1 (7.27), and FGOALS-f3-L (7.20). The rank score results for precipitation are most sensitive to the standard deviation, the statistics of Mann-Kendall trend analysis ( z ), and the slope of Mann-Kendall ( β ), while those for temperature show high sensitivity to z and β . Different combinations of rank score indexes moderately influence the scores. The EC-Earth3 model, identified as the most optimal, accurately reproduces the spatial distribution of precipitation but performs slightly less effectively for the spatial distribution of temperature.

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鞠琴,马啸赞,刘艳丽,等.基于秩评分方法的CMIP6全球气候模式对淮河流域降水和气温模拟能力评估[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(6):12-20.(JU Qin, MA Xiaozan, LIU Yanli, et al. Evaluation for CMIP6 global climate models in simulating precipitation and temperature over the Huaihe River Basin based on rank score method[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(6):12-20.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-09
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