基于多源数据的长春市洪涝灾害应对能力评估与提升
作者:
作者单位:

(1.天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300350;2.中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司,天津300074 )

作者简介:

段亭亭(1992—),女,工程师,博士,主要从事城市排水系统仿真模拟、城市内涝灾害评估研究。E-mail:tingyeah666@163.com

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中图分类号:

X43

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3800500);中国博士后科学基金会与天津市联合资助项目(特别资助)(2023T006TJ);中国建设科技集团股份有限公司创新基金-青年基金项目(Z2024Q02);中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司课题(2024-61-HJY)


Assessment and enhancement of flood disaster response capability in Changchun City based on multi-source data
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.School of Environmental Science & Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China;2.North China Municipal Engineering Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300074, China )

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    摘要:

    为提升长春市洪涝灾害应对能力,构建了基于压力-状态-响应概念模型的洪涝灾害应对能力综合评估指标体系,该体系将城市洪涝系统解构为压力(P)、状态(S)和响应(R)3个子系统,对应灾害成因、损失现状与应对措施,分别精选了4、6、4个核心评估指标,运用熵权法计算了长春市2002—2021年各子系统的时序权重,并利用耦合协调度模型分析了S子系统分别与P、R子系统的动态协调关系。结果表明:P子系统、R子系统呈显著线性增长趋势,表明城市面临的致灾压力与应对能力均在增强,而S子系统未表现出明显趋势;2010年、2013年、2017年S子系统与P、R子系统之间出现了不同程度的失调或耦合协调度下降现象,这与同期强降水量呈现相对高值高度吻合;城市洪涝灾害应对能力受强降雨显著影响,需协同工程与非工程技术策略,并优化城市规划、建设与管理策略,以提升系统协调性与灾害应对效能。

    Abstract:

    To enhance the flood disaster response capability of Changchun City, a comprehensive evaluation indicator system for flood disaster response capability was constructed based on the pressure-state-response conceptual model. This system deconstructed the urban flood disaster system into three subsystems: pressure (P), state (S), and response (R), corresponding to disaster causes, loss status, and response measures, respectively. A total of 4, 6, and 4 core evaluation indicators were carefully selected for each subsystem. The entropy weight method was applied to calculate the temporal weights of each subsystem in Changchun City from 2002 to 2021, and the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model was used to analyze the dynamic coordination relationship between the S subsystem and the P and R subsystems. The results indicate that the P and R subsystems exhibit significant linear growth trends, reflecting increasing disaster-inducing pressures and enhanced response capabilities in the city, while the S subsystem does not show a clear trend. During 2010, 2013, and 2017, varying degrees of imbalance or declines in CCD have been observed between the S subsystem and the P and R subsystems, which closely coincide with relatively high precipitation levels during those years. The urban flood disaster response capability is significantly influenced by heavy rainfall, necessitating the synergistic integration of engineering and non-engineering technical strategies, as well as the optimization of urban planning, construction, and management strategies, so as to improve system coordination and disaster response effectiveness.

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段亭亭,李鹏峰,邱顺添,等.基于多源数据的长春市洪涝灾害应对能力评估与提升[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(6):41-48, 56.(DUAN Tingting, LI Pengfeng, KHU S T, et al. Assessment and enhancement of flood disaster response capability in Changchun City based on multi-source data[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(6):41-48, 56.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-09
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