基于分时段CDTW选取相似日和CSSA优化LSTM的短期光伏功率预测模型
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河南理工大学电气工程与自动化学院,河南 焦作454003;2.河南理工大学计算机科学与技术学院,河南 焦作454003)

作者简介:

王瑞(1977—),男,副教授,硕士,主要从事电力系统分析研究。E-mail:wangrui@hpu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

TM615

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(62273133);河南省科技攻关项目(222102210120)


A short-term photovoltaic power prediction model based on time-segmented CDTW for selecting similar days and CSSA-optimized LSTM
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Affiliation:

(1.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454003, China;2.School of Computer Science and Technology, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454003, China )

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    摘要:

    针对光伏功率预测模型中直接使用历史数据集作为输入数据难以满足预测精度的问题,提出了一种基于分时段卷积动态时间规整(CDTW)选取相似日和混沌麻雀搜索算法(CSSA)优化长短时记忆网络(LSTM)的短期光伏功率预测模型(CSSA-LSTM模型)。该模型在数据预处理后,通过皮尔逊相关性分析选出影响功率的重要气象因素,避免不相关数据的干扰;根据待测日总辐射序列进行时段划分,对各时段采用CDTW进行相似时段的选取并重构为相似日集,同时利用CSSA对LSTM模型进行超参数寻优,自适应搜寻最佳超参数。我国南部地区某光伏电站2021年的实测数据仿真分析结果表明,相比普通相似日和采用麻雀搜索算法优化参数的LSTM模型,本文提出的相似日选取方法和CSSA-LSTM模型具有较高的预测精度和鲁棒性。

    Abstract:

    To address the issue that directly using historical datasets as input in photovoltaic (PV) power prediction models struggles to meet the required prediction accuracy, a short-term PV power prediction model, namely CSSA-LSTM model was proposed based on time-segmented convolutional dynamic time warping (CDTW) for similar day selection and the chaotic sparrow search algorithm (CSSA) for long short-term memory (LSTM) optimization. After preprocessing the data, the model identified key meteorological factors affecting power generation through Pearson correlation analysis, thereby avoiding interference from irrelevant data. It then divided time periods based on the total solar radiation sequence of the day to be predicted, applied the CDTW algorithm to each time period for selecting similar time segments, and reconstructed these segments into a set of similar days. Meanwhile, CSSA was used to optimize the hyperparameters of the LSTM model, enabling adaptive search for the optimal hyperparameters. Simulation analysis results using measured data from 2021 of a PV power station in southern China show that compared with traditional similar day methods and LSTM models optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), the similar day selection method and CSSA-LSTM model proposed in this study exhibit higher prediction accuracy and robustness.

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王瑞,杨源浩,逯静.基于分时段CDTW选取相似日和CSSA优化LSTM的短期光伏功率预测模型[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2025,53(6):166-174.(WANG Rui, YANG Yuanhao, LU Jing. A short-term photovoltaic power prediction model based on time-segmented CDTW for selecting similar days and CSSA-optimized LSTM[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2025,53(6):166-174.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-09
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