并发式复合灾害系统脆弱性评估
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作者单位:

(1.河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院;2.河海大学公共管理学院 )

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宋月(1998—),女,博士研究生,主要从事复合灾害应急研究。Email:220403020003@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974052);国家自然科学基金委员会-联合国环境规划署(NSFC-UNEP)可持续发展国际合作科学计划重点项目(42361144873);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001002)


Vulnerability assessment of concurrent compound disaster systems
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(1.Collegeof Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University;2.Collegeof Public Administration, Hohai University )

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    摘要:

    为完善并发式复合灾害脆弱性研究体系,考虑并发式灾害间的叠加(折减)效应、脆弱性各维度的不同特征,推导了并发式复合灾害系统暴露度指数、敏感性指数、适应性指数的理论公式,建立了并发式复合灾害系统脆弱性评估指标体系。该体系采用卷积神经网络对敏感性进行评估,采用熵权-TOPSIS评估法对暴露度和适应性进行评估,采用ArcGIS技术进行系统脆弱性综合评估并得到脆弱性等级区间分布。粤港澳大湾区崩塌-滑坡实例验证结果表明:该评估体系逻辑合理、方法可靠、评估结果准确,具有较强的科学性与适用性,可有效应用于并发式复合灾害脆弱性定量评估;粤港澳大湾区崩塌-滑坡高脆弱区和次高脆弱区集中分布在越秀区、天河区等湾区中部地区和南山区、福田区、罗湖区等湾区中南部地区;越秀区、福田区等脆弱性排名前十的区县需要着重考虑强化抗灾基础设施和加强灾害管理。

    Abstract:

    To improve the research system for concurrent compound disaster vulnerability, the superimposition (reduction) effects among concurrent disasters and the different characteristics of each dimension of vulnerability were considered, and the theoretical formulas for exposure index, sensitivity index, and adaptive capacity index of the concurrent compound disaster system were derived. Moreover, a assessment index system for vulnerability of the concurrent compound disaster system was established. This system used convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to evaluate sensitivity and employed the entropy weight-TOPSIS evaluation method to evaluate exposure and adaptability, and it utilized ArcGIS technology to conduct a comprehensive assessment of system vulnerability and obtained the distribution of vulnerability grade intervals. The verification results of the avalanche-landslide example in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area show that this assessment system is logically reasonable and methodologically reliable, and it has accurate assessment results, with strong scientificity and applicability. It can be effectively applied to the quantitative assessment of concurrent compound disaster vulnerability. The high and medium-high vulnerability areas of avalanche-landslide in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are concentrated in the central areas of the bay such as Yuexiu District and Tianhe District, as well as in the middle and southern areas of the bay such as Nanshan District, Futian District, and Luohu District. The districts and counties with vulnerability rankings in the top ten, such as Yuexiu District and Futian District, need to particularly consider strengthening disaster-resistant infrastructure and enhancing disaster management.

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宋月,王伟,徐峥辉,等.并发式复合灾害系统脆弱性评估[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(2):28-37, 117.(Song Yue, Wang Wei, Xu Zhenghui, et al. Vulnerability assessment of concurrent compound disaster systems[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(2):28-37, 117.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-04
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