基于多模型神经网络的径流缺失数据重建
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(1.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院;2.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室)

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管亚硕(2001—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。Email:231301010011@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

科技部重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3201100);陕西省科技厅重点研发项目(2020KWZ-023)


Reconstruction of missing runoff data based on multi-model neural networks
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(1.YangtzeInstitute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University;2.StateKey Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University)

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    摘要:

    针对径流数据缺失问题,构建了基于多个回归模型的长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络和反向传播(BP)神经网络相结合的日径流预测模型(MM-LSTM-BP模型),该模型采用回归模型提取径流线性、非线性、时序性、随机性特征,使用LSTM神经网络、BP神经网络串联回归模拟日径流过程。渭河流域实例验证结果表明:MM-LSTM-BP模型在验证期表现总体优于单一回归方法,日径流数据的均方根误差(RMSE)降低50%以上,纳什效率系数(NSE)提升到0.935;MM-LSTM-BP模型在平水期和退水期的稳定性更好,与单一回归方法相比,洪水期洪峰模拟误差减少6%以上。

    Abstract:

    To address the problem of missing runoff data, a daily runoff prediction model (MM-LSTM-BP model) combining a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and a back propagation (BP) neural network based on multiple regression models was constructed. In this model, regression models were adopted to extract the linear, nonlinear, temporal, and random characteristics of runoff, and the LSTM neural network and the BP neural network were used in series for the regression simulation of the daily runoff process. The case verification results of the Weihe River Basin indicate that the MM-LSTM-BP model generally performs better than the single regression methods during the verification period; the root mean square error (RMSE) of the daily runoff data decreases by more than 50%, and the Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) increases to 0.935; the MM-LSTM-BP model has better stability during the normal flow period and the recession period, and the simulation error of the flood peak is reduced by more than 6% during the flood period.

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管亚硕,连炎清,金君良,等.基于多模型神经网络的径流缺失数据重建[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(2):38-44, 71.(Guan Yashuo, Lian Yanqing, Jin Junliang, et al. Reconstruction of missing runoff data based on multi-model neural networks[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(2):38-44, 71.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-04
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