考虑降雨和径流协调关系的长江上游流域入汛指标
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(河海大学水文水资源学院)

作者简介:

王浩先(2001—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail:231301010039@hhu.edu.cn

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国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202801)


Flood season onset index of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin considering concurrent relationship between rainfall and runoff
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(College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University )

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    摘要:

    利用1979—2019年长江上游流域79个雨量站日降雨资料以及三峡逐日流量资料,探究了不同阈值判别条件下长江上游流域雨季入汛与流量入汛之间的协调关系,基于不同阈值下雨季入汛日期和流量入汛日期的相关系数,确定了降雨和径流关系最显著时降雨和径流各自对应的阈值,并依此确定了长江上游流域雨季入汛指标和流量入汛指标。结果表明:长江上游流域降水量增加提前于三峡入库流量上涨2~4候,入汛前降水量最显著的增加出现在第30候,相应的三峡入库流量在第32候亦出现明显的上涨;雨季入汛和流量入汛日期的多年平均值分别为5月31日和6月11日,1979—2019年大部分年份雨季入汛日期早于流量入汛日期,但有8年雨季入汛稍晚于流量入汛,主要原因是雨季入汛指标中达标雨量站数量不足;采用流域降雨体积指标优化雨季入汛指标后,优化效果显著,仅2年雨季入汛日期晚于流量入汛日期。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily rainfall data of 79 rainfall stations in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 1979 to 2019 and the daily runoff data at the Three Gorges, the concurrent relationship between the rainy season onset and the runoff-based flood season onset in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin under different threshold discrimination conditions was explored. Based on the correlation coefficients between the rainy season onset dates and the runoff-based flood season onset dates under different thresholds, the respective thresholds for rainfall and runoff when their relationship was the most significant were determined, and accordingly, the rainy season onset index and the runoff-based flood season onset index of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin were determined. The results indicate that the increase in rainfall in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin precedes the rise of the inflow at the Three Gorges by 2-4 pentads. Before the flood season onset, the most significant increase in rainfall occurs at the 30th pentad, and the corresponding inflow at the Three Gorges shows an obvious rise at the 32nd pentad; the multi-year average dates of the rainy season onset and the runoff-based flood season onset are May 31 and June 11, respectively. In most years from 1979 to 2019, the rainy season onset date is earlier than the runoff-based flood season onset date, but there are eight years when the rainy season onset is slightly later than the runoff-based flood season onset, mainly because the number of rainfall stations meeting the standard in the rainy season onset index is insufficient. After optimizing the rainy season onset index using the basin rainfall volume index, the optimization effect is remarkable, and there are only two years when the rainy season onset date is later than the runoff-based flood season onset date.

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王浩先,朱坚,钟平安.考虑降雨和径流协调关系的长江上游流域入汛指标[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(3):37-43.(Wang Haoxian, Zhu Jian, Zhong Ping’an. Flood season onset index of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin considering concurrent relationship between rainfall and runoff[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(3):37-43.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-28
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